Atalanta vs Venezia preview
Atalanta has a 53% probability of winning, while Venezia sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Atalanta's expected goals are 1.49 compared to Venezia's 1.56, indicating a tight contest. Both teams to score stands at 63%, and there is a 59% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows Atalanta with two wins in their last three matches, while Venezia has lost all six of their most recent games. In their last two encounters, Atalanta has one win and one draw against Venezia, who has yet to secure a victory. The confidence grade is B, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Why this pick: Atalanta vs Venezia
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atalanta 10, Venezia 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Atalanta vs Venezia: model vs market
| Source | Atalanta | Draw | Venezia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 28% | 37% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Published | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Edge | -26% | +6% | +20% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.66, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atalanta vs Venezia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atalanta, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.69 | 1.57 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 3.88 | 4.20 | +0.32 |
| Venezia | 5.17 | 5.57 | +0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atalanta and Venezia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Atalanta / Venezia)
- 0.82 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Atalanta / Venezia)
- 1.17 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atalanta vs Venezia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Venezia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atalanta vs Venezia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atalanta vs Venezia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Venezia | 22% | 4.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atalanta or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Venezia) | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win by 2+ | 17% | 5.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Atalanta and Venezia recent form
Atalanta
3W 0D 3L
Venezia
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atalanta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
Venezia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Atalanta at home only, Venezia away only.
Atalanta vs Venezia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Atalanta 1 · draws 1 · Venezia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Atalanta | 0-0 | Venezia | Serie A |
| 2024-10-20 | Venezia | 0-2 | Atalanta | Serie A |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Napoli v Frosinone — match page 2026-10-10
- Como v Roma — match page 2026-10-11
- Lazio v Monza — match page 2026-10-11
- Lecce vs Bologna 2026-10-11
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Cagliari vs Juventus 2026-10-11
- Torino v Udinese — match page 2026-10-12