Why this pick: Cagliari vs Inter
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Cagliari 10, Inter 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Cagliari vs Inter: model vs market
| Source | Cagliari | Draw | Inter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Market | 13% | 22% | 66% |
| Published | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| Edge | +17% | +6% | -24% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Cagliari vs Inter odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 5.80 | 7.54 | +1.75 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 4.31 | +0.51 |
| Inter | 1.46 | 1.44 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cagliari and Inter expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Cagliari / Inter)
- 1.14 / 1.39
- Defence rating (Cagliari / Inter)
- 1.03 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cagliari vs Inter score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cagliari goals. Columns: Inter goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cagliari vs Inter goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cagliari vs Inter
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cagliari | 17% | 5.92 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Inter | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cagliari or draw) | 40% | 2.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Inter) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win by 2+ | 23% | 4.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cagliari and Inter recent form
Cagliari
4W 1D 1L
Inter
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Cagliari absences
-
R. Idrissi
knee injury
-
Y. Trepy
injury
Inter absences
-
D. Spence
inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Cagliari vs Inter head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Cagliari 0 · draws 1 · Inter 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Inter | 3-0 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2025-09-27 | Cagliari | 0-2 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2025-04-12 | Inter | 3-1 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2024-12-28 | Cagliari | 0-3 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2024-04-14 | Inter | 2-2 | Cagliari | Serie A |
| 2023-08-28 | Cagliari | 0-2 | Inter | Serie A |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Napoli vs Como — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Lazio vs Genoa 2026-08-30
- Lecce vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-08-31
Before and after this match
- Cagliari, next: Cagliari vs Lecce: odds and pick
- Inter, next: Inter – Napoli, 2026-09-05