Why this pick: Napoli vs Como
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Napoli 10, Como 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Napoli vs Como: model vs market
| Source | Napoli | Draw | Como |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 31% | 35% |
| Market | 38% | 31% | 31% |
| Published | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Napoli vs Como odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Napoli, 17 snapshots since 2026-08-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 2.06 | 2.50 | +0.44 |
| Draw | 3.29 | 3.12 | -0.17 |
| Como | 4.42 | 3.02 | -1.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Napoli and Como expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Napoli / Como)
- 1.11 / 1.42
- Defence rating (Napoli / Como)
- 0.83 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Napoli vs Como score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: Como goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Napoli vs Como goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Napoli vs Como
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Napoli | 37% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Como | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Napoli or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Como) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Napoli win by 2+ | 16% | 6.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Napoli and Como recent form
Napoli
4W 1D 1L
Como
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Como away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Napoli at home only, Como away only.
Injuries & availability
Napoli absences
-
A. Buongiorno
knee injury
-
L. Marianucci
knee injury
-
P. Mazzocchi
knee injury
Como absences
-
J. Addai
achilles tendon injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Napoli vs Como head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Napoli 1 · draws 3 · Como 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Como | 0-0 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2026-02-10 | Napoli | 1-1 | Como | Coppa Italia |
| 2025-11-01 | Napoli | 0-0 | Como | Serie A |
| 2025-02-23 | Como | 2-1 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2024-10-04 | Napoli | 3-1 | Como | Serie A |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Lazio vs Genoa 2026-08-30
- Cagliari v Inter — match page 2026-08-30
- Lecce vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-08-31
Before and after this match
- Napoli, next: Inter – Napoli, 2026-09-05
- Como, next: Genoa vs Como: odds and pick