Why this pick: Lazio vs Genoa
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lazio 10, Genoa 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lazio vs Genoa: model vs market
| Source | Lazio | Draw | Genoa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 31% | 43% |
| Market | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Published | 42% | 30% | 27% |
| Edge | -21% | +1% | +20% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lazio vs Genoa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lazio, 17 snapshots since 2026-08-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 1.99 | 1.98 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.16 | -0.24 |
| Genoa | 4.54 | 4.22 | -0.32 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lazio and Genoa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Lazio / Genoa)
- 0.82 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Lazio / Genoa)
- 1.14 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lazio vs Genoa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lazio goals. Columns: Genoa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lazio vs Genoa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lazio vs Genoa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lazio | 42% | 2.36 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Genoa | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lazio or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Genoa) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lazio win by 2+ | 11% | 8.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lazio and Genoa recent form
Lazio
2W 0D 4L
Genoa
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Lazio absences
-
A. Furlanetto
knee injury
-
A. Marusic
muscle injury
-
D. Cataldi
muscle injury
-
F. Dele-Bashiru
muscle injury
-
J. Sutalo
coach's decision
-
L. Pellegrini
injury
-
Patric
ankle injury
-
S. Gigot
inactive
Genoa absences
-
L. Venturino
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Lazio vs Genoa head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Lazio 5 · draws 0 · Genoa 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Lazio | 3-2 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2025-09-29 | Genoa | 0-3 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2025-04-23 | Genoa | 0-2 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2024-10-27 | Lazio | 3-0 | Genoa | Serie A |
| 2024-04-19 | Genoa | 0-1 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2023-08-27 | Lazio | 0-1 | Genoa | Serie A |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Napoli vs Como — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Cagliari v Inter — match page 2026-08-30
- Lecce vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-08-31
Before and after this match
- Lazio, next: Udinese vs Lazio prediction
- Genoa, next: Genoa vs Como: odds and pick