Why this pick: Tottenham vs Everton
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Tottenham 10, Everton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Tottenham vs Everton: model vs market
| Source | Tottenham | Draw | Everton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 24% | 25% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.45.
- The market prices Tottenham below the model: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Tottenham vs Everton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tottenham, 27 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 2.15 | 2.00 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.70 | +0.30 |
| Everton | 3.30 | 3.62 | +0.32 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tottenham and Everton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.47
- Attack rating (Tottenham / Everton)
- 1.22 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Tottenham / Everton)
- 1.04 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tottenham vs Everton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tottenham goals. Columns: Everton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tottenham vs Everton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tottenham vs Everton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tottenham | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Everton | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tottenham or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Everton) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tottenham win by 2+ | 32% | 3.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Tottenham and Everton recent form
Tottenham
2W 1D 3L
Everton
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tottenham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Everton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Tottenham at home only, Everton away only.
Injuries & availability
Tottenham absences
-
D. Kulusevski
knee injury
-
J. Maddison
knock
-
M. Mudryk
ankle injury
-
Richarlison
transfer negotiations
-
W. Odobert
knee injury
-
X. Simons
knee injury
Everton absences
-
C. Norgaard
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Tottenham vs Everton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Tottenham 6 · draws 3 · Everton 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Tottenham | 1-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2025-10-26 | Everton | 0-3 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2025-01-19 | Everton | 3-2 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2024-08-24 | Tottenham | 4-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2024-02-03 | Everton | 2-2 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2023-12-23 | Tottenham | 2-1 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2023-04-03 | Everton | 1-1 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2022-10-15 | Tottenham | 2-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2022-03-07 | Tottenham | 5-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2021-11-07 | Everton | 0-0 | Tottenham | Premier League |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Bournemouth vs Brentford 2026-09-12
- Liverpool v Fulham — match page 2026-09-12
- Chelsea vs Hull City — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Crystal Palace vs Ipswich 2026-09-12
- Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest — match page 2026-09-12
- Sunderland vs Arsenal 2026-09-12
- Coventry v Brighton — match page 2026-09-13
- Manchester United vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Tottenham, previous: Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham: odds and pick
- Tottenham, next: Tottenham v Aston Villa analysis
- Everton, previous: Everton – Manchester United, 2026-09-06
- Everton, next: Everton vs Ipswich prediction