Why this pick: Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nottingham Forest 10, Tottenham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham: model vs market
| Source | Nottingham Forest | Draw | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Published | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Edge | -2% | -2% | +4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nottingham Forest, 23 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 2.70 | 2.42 | -0.28 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.50 | +0.15 |
| Tottenham | 2.60 | 2.91 | +0.31 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nottingham Forest and Tottenham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.36
- Attack rating (Nottingham Forest / Tottenham)
- 0.99 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Nottingham Forest / Tottenham)
- 1.13 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nottingham Forest goals. Columns: Tottenham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nottingham Forest | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Tottenham | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nottingham Forest or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Tottenham) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nottingham Forest win by 2+ | 20% | 4.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Nottingham Forest and Tottenham recent form
Nottingham Forest
0W 3D 3L
Tottenham
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nottingham Forest at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Tottenham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Nottingham Forest at home only, Tottenham away only.
Injuries & availability
Nottingham Forest absences
-
I. Sangare
calf injury
-
N. Savona
knee injury
Tottenham absences
-
D. Kulusevski
knee injury
-
J. Maddison
knock
-
Savinho
muscle injury
-
W. Odobert
knee injury
-
X. Simons
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Nottingham Forest 5 · draws 0 · Tottenham 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Tottenham | 0-3 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2025-12-14 | Nottingham Forest | 3-0 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2025-04-21 | Tottenham | 1-2 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2024-12-26 | Nottingham Forest | 1-0 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2024-04-07 | Tottenham | 3-1 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2023-12-15 | Nottingham Forest | 0-2 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2023-03-11 | Tottenham | 3-1 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2022-11-09 | Nottingham Forest | 2-0 | Tottenham | League Cup |
| 2022-08-28 | Nottingham Forest | 0-2 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2014-09-24 | Tottenham | 3-1 | Nottingham Forest | League Cup |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Ipswich vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-09-04
- Newcastle United vs Bournemouth 2026-09-05
- Fulham v Crystal Palace — match page 2026-09-05
- Manchester City vs Coventry — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Brighton vs Leeds 2026-09-05
- Brentford v Sunderland — match page 2026-09-05
- Hull City vs Aston Villa 2026-09-05
- Everton v Manchester United — match page 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Nottingham Forest, next: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: odds and pick
- Tottenham, next: Tottenham vs Everton prediction