Why this pick: Tottenham vs Aston Villa
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Tottenham 10, Aston Villa 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa: model vs market
| Source | Tottenham | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 24% | 34% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Published | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Edge | -7% | -2% | +10% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tottenham, 27 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 2.33 | 1.96 | -0.37 |
| Draw | 3.37 | 3.63 | +0.26 |
| Aston Villa | 3.18 | 3.88 | +0.70 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tottenham and Aston Villa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.63
- Attack rating (Tottenham / Aston Villa)
- 1.11 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Tottenham / Aston Villa)
- 1.11 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tottenham goals. Columns: Aston Villa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tottenham vs Aston Villa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tottenham | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Aston Villa | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.38 |
| No | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tottenham or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Aston Villa) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tottenham win by 2+ | 24% | 4.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Tottenham and Aston Villa recent form
Tottenham
1W 2D 3L
Aston Villa
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tottenham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Aston Villa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Tottenham at home only, Aston Villa away only.
Injuries & availability
Tottenham absences
-
D. Kulusevski
knee injury
-
M. Mudryk
ankle injury
-
Richarlison
inactive
-
W. Odobert
knee injury
-
X. Simons
knee injury
Aston Villa absences
-
A. Onana
knee injury
-
B. Madjo
ankle injury
-
I. Maatsen
ankle injury
-
Joao Gomes
calf injury
-
L. Goretzka
knee injury
-
M. Bizot
back injury
-
M. Cash
injury
-
P. Torres
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Tottenham lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 31 A. Kinský
- 3 A. Robertson
- 37 M. van de Ven
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 23 Pedro Porro
- 16 S. Tonali
- 30 R. Bentancur
- 22 Omar Marmoush
- 18 Mateus Fernandes
- 17 Sávio
- 19 D. Solanke
Bench: T. Adarabioyo, M. Senesi, C. Gallagher, J. Maddison, D. Udogie, A. Gray, L. Bergvall, M. Kudus, M. Dúbravka
Aston Villa lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Z. Suzuki
- 13 M. Ruggeri
- 5 T. Mings
- 3 V. Lindelöf
- 29 A. Wan-Bissaka
- 35 João Gomes
- 8 B. Kamara
- 44 J. Manzambi
- 10 E. Buendía
- 7 J. McGinn
- 11 N. Jackson
Bench: M. Cash, T. Harwood-Bellis, R. Barkley, A. Garnacho, T. Abraham, I. Mbaye, L. Bogarde, J. Wright, George Hemmings
Tottenham vs Aston Villa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Tottenham 3 · draws 0 · Aston Villa 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Aston Villa | 1-2 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2026-01-10 | Tottenham | 1-2 | Aston Villa | England FA Cup |
| 2025-10-19 | Tottenham | 1-2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2025-05-16 | Aston Villa | 2-0 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2025-02-09 | Aston Villa | 2-1 | Tottenham | England FA Cup |
| 2024-11-03 | Tottenham | 4-1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2024-03-10 | Aston Villa | 0-4 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2023-11-26 | Tottenham | 1-2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2023-05-13 | Aston Villa | 2-1 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2023-01-01 | Tottenham | 0-2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Brentford v Chelsea — match page 2026-09-18
- Newcastle United vs Hull City 2026-09-19
- Everton v Ipswich — match page 2026-09-19
- Brighton vs Arsenal 2026-09-19
- Nottingham Forest vs Coventry — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Manchester City vs Sunderland — team news & stats 2026-09-20
- Leeds v Crystal Palace — match page 2026-09-20
- Bournemouth vs Liverpool 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Tottenham, previous: Tottenham vs Everton prediction
- Tottenham, next: Manchester United vs Tottenham prediction
- Aston Villa, previous: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: odds and pick
- Aston Villa, next: Aston Villa v Brentford analysis