Why this pick: Everton vs Manchester United
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Everton 10, Manchester United 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Everton vs Manchester United: model vs market
| Source | Everton | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| Market | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Published | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Edge | +8% | -3% | -5% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Everton vs Manchester United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Manchester United, 25 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 2.65 | 3.50 | +0.85 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.67 | +0.47 |
| Manchester United | 2.30 | 2.10 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Everton and Manchester United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.91
- Attack rating (Everton / Manchester United)
- 1.17 / 1.50
- Defence rating (Everton / Manchester United)
- 1.13 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Everton vs Manchester United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Everton goals. Columns: Manchester United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Everton vs Manchester United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Everton vs Manchester United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Everton | 30% | 3.37 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Manchester United | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.32 |
| No | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Everton or draw) | 55% | 1.81 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Manchester United) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester United win by 2+ | 24% | 4.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Everton and Manchester United recent form
Everton
2W 2D 2L
Manchester United
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Everton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Manchester United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Everton at home only, Manchester United away only.
Injuries & availability
Everton absences
-
C. Norgaard
injury
Manchester United absences
-
A. Diallo
injury
-
C. Baleba
ankle injury
-
M. Ugarte
knee injury
-
M. de Ligt
back injury
-
T. Heaton
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Everton vs Manchester United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Everton 1 · draws 2 · Manchester United 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | Everton | 0-1 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2025-11-24 | Manchester United | 0-1 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2025-08-03 | Manchester United | 2-2 | Everton | Premier League - Summer Series |
| 2025-02-22 | Everton | 2-2 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2024-12-01 | Manchester United | 4-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2024-03-09 | Manchester United | 2-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2023-11-26 | Everton | 0-3 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2023-04-08 | Manchester United | 2-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2023-01-06 | Manchester United | 3-1 | Everton | FA Cup |
| 2022-10-09 | Everton | 1-2 | Manchester United | Premier League |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Ipswich vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-09-04
- Newcastle United vs Bournemouth 2026-09-05
- Fulham v Crystal Palace — match page 2026-09-05
- Manchester City vs Coventry — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Brighton vs Leeds 2026-09-05
- Brentford v Sunderland — match page 2026-09-05
- Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Hull City vs Aston Villa 2026-09-05
Before and after this match
- Everton, next: Tottenham vs Everton prediction
- Manchester United, previous: Manchester United vs Ipswich: odds and pick
- Manchester United, next: Manchester United vs Manchester City: odds and pick