Updated

Premier League · Matchday 4

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

· Villa Park, Birmingham· Referee Andrew Madley

Full time1 – 2

BCCFC prediction was Aston Villa to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Aston VillaDrawNottingham Forest

Why this pick: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Aston Villa 10, Nottingham Forest 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Aston VillaNottingham Forest
1.59 xG per 90 1.59
1.59 npxG per 90 1.44
15.0 PPDA 14.6
4.3 Deep completions per 90 6.0
1.38 xPTS per 90 1.49

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAston VillaDrawNottingham Forest
Model61%21%17%
Market42%29%30%
Published47%27%26%
Edge+20%-7%-12%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 1.19.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Aston Villa below the model: +19.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aston Villa, 26 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.80Now 2.30 +0.50
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Aston Villa1.802.30+0.50
Draw3.703.35-0.35
Nottingham Forest4.303.25-1.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.21Aston Villa
1.19Nottingham Forest
Total expected goals
3.40
Attack rating (Aston Villa / Nottingham Forest)
1.29 / 0.95
Defence rating (Aston Villa / Nottingham Forest)
1.02 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.2% 2.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1 5.7% 9.5% 4.9% 1.9% 0.7% 2 8.1% 9.6% 5.7% 2.3% 0.9% 3 6.2% 7.4% 4.4% 1.7% 0.7% 4+ 6.2% 7.4% 4.4% 1.7% 0.7%

Rows: Aston Villa goals. Columns: Nottingham Forest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Aston Villa47%2.14
Draw27%3.72
Nottingham Forest26%3.78
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.47
Under 2.532%3.13
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.56
No36%2.77
Double chance1X (Aston Villa or draw)74%1.36
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Nottingham Forest)53%1.88
Handicap -1Aston Villa win by 2+41%2.46
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest recent form

Aston Villa 3W 1D 2L
Nottingham Forest 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Aston Villa at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Nottingham Forest away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Aston Villa at home only, Nottingham Forest away only.

Injuries & availability

Aston Villa absences

  • A. Onana knee injury
  • B. Madjo ankle injury
  • J. Manzambi knee injury
  • Joao Gomes suspended
  • L. Goretzka knee injury
  • M. Cash muscle injury

Nottingham Forest absences

  • N. Savona knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Aston Villa lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Z. Suzuki
  2. 22 I. Maatsen
  3. 14 Pau Torres
  4. 3 V. Lindelöf
  5. 29 A. Wan-Bissaka
  6. 6 R. Barkley
  7. 8 B. Kamara
  8. 53 George Hemmings
  9. 10 E. Buendía
  10. 7 J. McGinn
  11. 11 N. Jackson

Bench: T. Mings, M. Ruggeri, A. Garnacho, T. Abraham, I. Mbaye, L. Bogarde, M. Bizot, J. Manzambi, Alysson Edward

Nottingham Forest lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 26 M. Sels
  2. 5 Murillo
  3. 2 O. Diomande
  4. 34 O. Aina
  5. 3 N. Williams
  6. 24 J. McAtee
  7. 21 X. Schlager
  8. 27 D. Muñoz
  9. 10 M. Gibbs-White
  10. 14 D. Ndoye
  11. 19 L. Delap

Bench: I. Sangaré, C. Hudson-Odoi, N. Domínguez, C. Wood, Igor Jesus, John, A. Kalimuendo, R. Yates, L. Netz

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Aston Villa 5 · draws 2 · Nottingham Forest 3.

Aston VillaDrawsNottingham Forest
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-07Aston Villa4-0Nottingham ForestUEFA Europa League
2026-04-30Nottingham Forest1-0Aston VillaUEFA Europa League
2026-04-12Nottingham Forest1-1Aston VillaPremier League
2026-01-03Aston Villa3-1Nottingham ForestPremier League
2025-04-05Aston Villa2-1Nottingham ForestPremier League
2024-12-14Nottingham Forest2-1Aston VillaPremier League
2024-02-24Aston Villa4-2Nottingham ForestPremier League
2023-11-05Nottingham Forest2-0Aston VillaPremier League
2023-04-08Aston Villa2-0Nottingham ForestPremier League
2022-10-10Nottingham Forest1-1Aston VillaPremier League

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match