Why this pick: Crystal Palace vs Ipswich
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Crystal Palace 10, Ipswich 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich: model vs market
| Source | Crystal Palace | Draw | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Published | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Edge | -1% | -3% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.66.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Crystal Palace, 26 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 1.80 | 1.90 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.75 | +0.05 |
| Ipswich | 4.30 | 4.00 | -0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Crystal Palace and Ipswich expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.76
- Attack rating (Crystal Palace / Ipswich)
- 1.23 / 1.17
- Defence rating (Crystal Palace / Ipswich)
- 1.16 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Crystal Palace goals. Columns: Ipswich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Crystal Palace vs Ipswich
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crystal Palace | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Ipswich | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Crystal Palace or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Ipswich) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Crystal Palace win by 2+ | 30% | 3.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Crystal Palace and Ipswich recent form
Crystal Palace
3W 0D 3L
Ipswich
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Crystal Palace at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Ipswich away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 5.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Crystal Palace at home only, Ipswich away only.
Injuries & availability
Crystal Palace absences
-
C. Riad
knee injury
-
E. Nketiah
injury
-
I. Sarr
groin injury
-
J. Mateta
hamstring injury
Ipswich absences
-
J. Taylor
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Crystal Palace lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 44 W. Benítez
- 21 H. Ahanor
- 5 A. Disasi
- 26 C. Richards
- 3 T. Mitchell
- 20 A. Wharton
- 23 Q. Timber
- 25 A. Khalaili
- 10 Yeremy Pino
- 18 D. Kamada
- 22 J. Strand Larsen
Bench: J. Lerma, D. McNeil, Z. Gozo, T. Tomiyasu, W. Hughes, C. Doucouré, Óscar Mingueza, R. Matthews, B. Chilwell
Ipswich lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 37 K. Scherpen
- 3 L. Davis
- 24 J. Greaves
- 6 I. Diop
- 26 D. O'Shea
- 25 E. Palacios
- 23 S. Lukić
- 47 J. Clarke
- 10 J. Enciso
- 7 A. Fatawu
- 19 Emersonn
Bench: C. Kipré, Z. Flemming, J. Philogene, Florentino, C. Walton, C. Akpom, M. Núñez, D. Maeda, A. Ouattara
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Crystal Palace 7 · draws 1 · Ipswich 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Crystal Palace | 1-0 | Ipswich | Premier League |
| 2024-12-03 | Ipswich | 0-1 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2022-07-16 | Crystal Palace | 4-2 | Ipswich | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-07-24 | Ipswich | 0-1 | Crystal Palace | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2017-08-22 | Crystal Palace | 2-1 | Ipswich | League Cup |
| 2013-04-16 | Ipswich | 3-0 | Crystal Palace | Championship |
| 2012-11-06 | Crystal Palace | 5-0 | Ipswich | Championship |
| 2012-04-14 | Crystal Palace | 1-1 | Ipswich | Championship |
| 2011-10-22 | Ipswich | 0-1 | Crystal Palace | Championship |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Bournemouth vs Brentford 2026-09-12
- Liverpool v Fulham — match page 2026-09-12
- Chelsea vs Hull City — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest — match page 2026-09-12
- Tottenham vs Everton — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Sunderland vs Arsenal 2026-09-12
- Coventry v Brighton — match page 2026-09-13
- Manchester United vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Crystal Palace, previous: Fulham vs Crystal Palace: odds and pick
- Crystal Palace, next: Leeds vs Crystal Palace: odds and pick
- Ipswich, previous: Ipswich – Liverpool, 2026-09-04
- Ipswich, next: Everton vs Ipswich prediction