Updated

Premier League · Matchday 4

Sunderland vs Arsenal

· Stadium of Light, Sunderland· Referee John Brooks

Full time0 – 2

BCCFC prediction was Arsenal to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SunderlandDrawArsenal

Why this pick: Sunderland vs Arsenal

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sunderland 10, Arsenal 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SunderlandArsenal
1.43 xG per 90 2.20
1.34 npxG per 90 2.20
10.5 PPDA 10.6
8.1 Deep completions per 90 11.9
1.30 xPTS per 90 2.17

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Sunderland vs Arsenal: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSunderlandDrawArsenal
Model24%31%45%
Market15%25%60%
Published17%26%56%
Edge+9%+6%-15%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.91.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sunderland vs Arsenal odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 27 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.42Now 1.60 +0.18
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sunderland5.306.40+1.10
Draw3.753.90+0.15
Arsenal1.421.60+0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sunderland and Arsenal expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.91Sunderland
1.39Arsenal
Total expected goals
2.30
Attack rating (Sunderland / Arsenal)
1.01 / 1.23
Defence rating (Sunderland / Arsenal)
0.92 / 0.59

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sunderland vs Arsenal score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.5% 11.4% 9.2% 4.3% 2.0% 1 7.3% 14.6% 8.8% 4.1% 1.9% 2 4.4% 6.1% 4.2% 2.0% 0.9% 3 1.4% 2.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 4+ 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Sunderland goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sunderland vs Arsenal goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sunderland vs Arsenal

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sunderland17%5.78
Draw26%3.80
Arsenal56%1.77
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.40
Under 2.558%1.71
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.08
No52%1.93
Double chance1X (Sunderland or draw)44%2.29
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Arsenal)83%1.21
Handicap -1Arsenal win by 2+23%4.44
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sunderland and Arsenal recent form

Sunderland 4W 1D 1L
Arsenal 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sunderland at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Arsenal away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Sunderland at home only, Arsenal away only.

Injuries & availability

Sunderland absences

  • H. Diarra hamstring injury
  • R. Mundle knee injury

Arsenal absences

  • C. Mosquera muscle injury
  • J. Timber ankle injury
  • W. Saliba back injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Sunderland lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 R. Roefs
  2. 17 Reinildo
  3. 5 D. Ballard
  4. 4 K. Danso
  5. 20 N. Mukiele
  6. 27 N. Sadiki
  7. 34 G. Xhaka
  8. 10 N. Angulo
  9. 28 E. Le Fée
  10. 12 T. Meunier
  11. 9 B. Brobbey

Bench: D. Methalie, C. Talbi, C. Rigg, L. O'Nien, O. Alderete, W. Isidor, M. Ellborg, T. Hume, M. Fofana

Arsenal lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 David Raya
  2. 33 R. Calafiori
  3. 6 Gabriel Magalhães
  4. 15 E. Konsa
  5. 4 B. White
  6. 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
  7. 41 D. Rice
  8. 17 C. Tzolis
  9. 8 M. Ødegaard
  10. 7 B. Saka
  11. 29 K. Havertz

Bench: P. Hincapié, E. Eze, J. Timber, Kepa, V. Gyökeres, N. Madueke, Mikel Merino, Martín Zubimendi, Bruno Guimarães

Sunderland vs Arsenal head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Sunderland 0 · draws 3 · Arsenal 7.

SunderlandDrawsArsenal
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-07Arsenal3-0SunderlandPremier League
2025-11-08Sunderland2-2ArsenalPremier League
2021-12-21Arsenal5-1SunderlandLeague Cup
2017-05-16Arsenal2-0SunderlandPremier League
2016-10-29Sunderland1-4ArsenalPremier League
2016-04-24Sunderland0-0ArsenalPremier League
2016-01-09Arsenal3-1SunderlandFA Cup
2015-12-05Arsenal3-1SunderlandPremier League
2015-05-20Arsenal0-0SunderlandPremier League
2014-10-25Sunderland0-2ArsenalPremier League

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match