Why this pick: Manchester United vs Manchester City
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Manchester United 10, Manchester City 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Manchester United vs Manchester City: model vs market
| Source | Manchester United | Draw | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Published | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Edge | +14% | -1% | -13% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Manchester United vs Manchester City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Manchester City, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 3.40 | 3.10 | -0.30 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.80 | +0.20 |
| Manchester City | 2.05 | 2.20 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Manchester United and Manchester City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (Manchester United / Manchester City)
- 1.55 / 1.44
- Defence rating (Manchester United / Manchester City)
- 0.92 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Manchester United vs Manchester City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Manchester United goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Manchester United vs Manchester City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Manchester United vs Manchester City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester United | 34% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Manchester City | 41% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Manchester United or draw) | 59% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Manchester City) | 66% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester City win by 2+ | 16% | 6.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Manchester United and Manchester City recent form
Manchester United
4W 1D 1L
Manchester City
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Manchester United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 5.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Manchester City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Manchester United at home only, Manchester City away only.
Injuries & availability
Manchester United absences
-
A. Diallo
injury
-
C. Baleba
ankle injury
-
M. Ugarte
knee injury
-
M. de Ligt
back injury
-
T. Heaton
injury
Manchester City absences
-
J. Doku
calf injury
-
N. O'Reilly
back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Manchester United vs Manchester City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Manchester United 4 · draws 2 · Manchester City 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Manchester United | 2-0 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2025-09-14 | Manchester City | 3-0 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2025-04-06 | Manchester United | 0-0 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2024-12-15 | Manchester City | 1-2 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2024-08-10 | Manchester City | 1-1 | Manchester United | Community Shield |
| 2024-05-25 | Manchester City | 1-2 | Manchester United | FA Cup |
| 2024-03-03 | Manchester City | 3-1 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2023-10-29 | Manchester United | 0-3 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2023-06-03 | Manchester City | 2-1 | Manchester United | FA Cup |
| 2023-01-14 | Manchester United | 2-1 | Manchester City | Premier League |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Bournemouth vs Brentford 2026-09-12
- Liverpool v Fulham — match page 2026-09-12
- Chelsea vs Hull City — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Crystal Palace vs Ipswich 2026-09-12
- Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest — match page 2026-09-12
- Tottenham vs Everton — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Sunderland vs Arsenal 2026-09-12
- Coventry v Brighton — match page 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Manchester United, previous: Everton – Manchester United, 2026-09-06
- Manchester United, next: Fulham v Manchester United analysis
- Manchester City, previous: Manchester City vs Coventry prediction
- Manchester City, next: Manchester City – Sunderland, 2026-09-20