Updated

Premier League · Matchday 4

Liverpool vs Fulham

· Anfield, Liverpool· Referee Thomas Bramall

Full time0 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Liverpool to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LiverpoolDrawFulham

Why this pick: Liverpool vs Fulham

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Liverpool 10, Fulham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LiverpoolFulham
1.58 xG per 90 1.39
1.49 npxG per 90 1.32
10.5 PPDA 11.0
6.4 Deep completions per 90 9.9
1.24 xPTS per 90 1.17

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Liverpool vs Fulham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLiverpoolDrawFulham
Model41%25%34%
Market64%20%16%
Published58%21%21%
Edge-22%+4%+18%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Liverpool vs Fulham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Liverpool, 26 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.38Now 1.50 +0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Liverpool1.381.50+0.12
Draw4.204.75+0.55
Fulham5.205.99+0.79

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Liverpool and Fulham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.80Liverpool
1.71Fulham
Total expected goals
3.50
Attack rating (Liverpool / Fulham)
1.05 / 1.15
Defence rating (Liverpool / Fulham)
1.21 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Liverpool vs Fulham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 3.4% 4.0% 2.3% 1.4% 1 3.9% 10.2% 7.6% 4.3% 2.7% 2 4.9% 8.4% 7.1% 4.1% 2.5% 3 3.1% 5.3% 4.5% 2.5% 1.6% 4+ 2.2% 3.8% 3.2% 1.8% 1.2%

Rows: Liverpool goals. Columns: Fulham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Liverpool vs Fulham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 48%
Both teams to score
71%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Liverpool vs Fulham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Liverpool58%1.72
Draw21%4.70
Fulham21%4.87
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.44
Under 2.530%3.29
Both teams to scoreYes71%1.41
No29%3.42
Double chance1X (Liverpool or draw)79%1.26
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Fulham)42%2.39
Handicap -1Liverpool win by 2+23%4.30
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Liverpool and Fulham recent form

Liverpool 2W 3D 1L
Fulham 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Liverpool at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Fulham away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Liverpool at home only, Fulham away only.

Injuries & availability

Liverpool absences

  • C. Bradley knee injury
  • C. Gakpo muscle injury
  • F. Chiesa back injury
  • G. Leoni knee injury
  • H. Ekitike achilles tendon injury
  • J. Gomez muscle injury

Fulham absences

  • T. Cairney knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Liverpool lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Alisson Becker
  2. 21 K. Tsimikas
  3. 4 V. van Dijk
  4. 5 J. Jacquet
  5. 33 R. Araújo
  6. 38 R. Gravenberch
  7. 8 D. Szoboszlai
  8. 29 B. Barcola
  9. 7 F. Wirtz
  10. 23 Víctor Muñoz
  11. 9 A. Isak

Bench: W. Endo, M. Kerkez, A. Mac Allister, C. Gakpo, G. Mamardashvili, J. Frimpong, T. Nyoni, L. Koumas, R. Ngumoha

Fulham lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 B. Leno
  2. 33 A. Robinson
  3. 3 C. Bassey
  4. 22 D. Affengruber
  5. 21 T. Castagne
  6. 19 S. Charles
  7. 16 S. Berge
  8. 17 A. Iwobi
  9. 24 Joshua King
  10. 14 Oscar Bobb
  11. 7 Gonzalo García

Bench: K. Tete, J. Andersen, César Palacios, Rodrigo Muniz, Kevin, H. Larsson, Manuel Ángel, B. Lecomte, E. Smith Rowe

Liverpool vs Fulham head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Liverpool 5 · draws 4 · Fulham 1.

LiverpoolDrawsFulham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11Liverpool2-0FulhamPremier League
2026-01-04Fulham2-2LiverpoolPremier League
2025-04-06Fulham3-2LiverpoolPremier League
2024-12-14Liverpool2-2FulhamPremier League
2024-04-21Fulham1-3LiverpoolPremier League
2024-01-24Fulham1-1LiverpoolLeague Cup
2024-01-10Liverpool2-1FulhamLeague Cup
2023-12-03Liverpool4-3FulhamPremier League
2023-05-03Liverpool1-0FulhamPremier League
2022-08-06Fulham2-2LiverpoolPremier League

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match