Updated

Premier League · Matchday 4

Chelsea vs Hull City

· Stamford Bridge, London· Referee Farai Hallam

Full time2 – 2

BCCFC prediction was Chelsea to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ChelseaDrawHull City

Why this pick: Chelsea vs Hull City

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Chelsea 10, Hull City 4). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

ChelseaHull City
1.47 xG per 90 0.92
1.38 npxG per 90 0.92
15.1 PPDA 19.6
7.6 Deep completions per 90 2.3
1.17 xPTS per 90 0.84

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Chelsea vs Hull City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceChelseaDrawHull City
Model41%31%28%
Market78%14%8%
Published68%19%13%
Edge-37%+17%+20%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Chelsea vs Hull City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Chelsea, 26 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.18Now 1.22 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Chelsea1.181.22+0.04
Draw6.106.55+0.45
Hull City11.2511.90+0.65

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Chelsea and Hull City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Chelsea
1.08Hull City
Total expected goals
2.36
Attack rating (Chelsea / Hull City)
1.45 / 0.75
Defence rating (Chelsea / Hull City)
1.18 / 0.57

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chelsea vs Hull City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.7% 7.6% 5.2% 1.9% 0.6% 1 9.9% 14.8% 7.0% 2.5% 0.9% 2 8.0% 8.6% 4.7% 1.7% 0.6% 3 3.6% 3.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 1.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Hull City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chelsea vs Hull City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chelsea vs Hull City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Chelsea68%1.46
Draw19%5.38
Hull City13%7.69
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.29
Under 2.556%1.78
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.97
No49%2.03
Double chance1X (Chelsea or draw)87%1.15
12 (either side)81%1.23
X2 (draw or Hull City)32%3.16
Handicap -1Chelsea win by 2+20%5.04
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Chelsea and Hull City recent form

Chelsea 4W 0D 2L
Hull City 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Chelsea at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Hull City away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Chelsea at home only, Hull City away only.

Injuries & availability

Chelsea absences

  • E. Emegha injury
  • J. Henderson wrist injury
  • M. Caicedo injury
  • M. Palestra injury

Hull City absences

  • C. Hughes groin injury
  • D. Gyabi groin injury
  • E. Matazo knee injury
  • H. Morita calf injury
  • I. Ansah back injury
  • J. Butland arm injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Chelsea lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 E. Martínez
  2. 21 J. Hato
  3. 6 L. Colwill
  4. 3 W. Fofana
  5. 27 M. Gusto
  6. 45 R. Lavia
  7. 24 R. James
  8. 7 Pedro Neto
  9. 17 M. Rogers
  10. 10 C. Palmer
  11. 9 João Pedro

Bench: V. Barco, M. Lacroix, J. Bynoe-Gittens, D. Welbeck, Geovany Tcherno Quenda, Pep Chavarría, Joshua Kofi Acheampong, M. Penders, Estêvão

Hull City lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 19 K. Tzolakis
  2. 3 R. Giles
  3. 32 N. Mendy
  4. 15 J. Egan
  5. 6 S. Ajayi
  6. 2 L. Coyle
  7. 21 E. Stroud
  8. 27 R. Slater
  9. 25 M. Crooks
  10. 10 M. Belloumi
  11. 9 O. McBurnie

Bench: S. Thomas, D. Phillips, B. Norton-Cuffy, L. Herrington, M. Targett, L. Gourna-Douath, T. Iroegbunam, R. Vaz, M. Cho

Chelsea vs Hull City head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Chelsea 9 · draws 0 · Hull City 0.

ChelseaDrawsHull City
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-13Hull City0-4ChelseaEngland FA Cup
2020-01-25Hull City1-2ChelseaFA Cup
2018-02-16Chelsea4-0Hull CityFA Cup
2017-01-22Chelsea2-0Hull CityPremier League
2016-10-01Hull City0-2ChelseaPremier League
2015-03-22Hull City2-3ChelseaPremier League
2014-12-13Chelsea2-0Hull CityPremier League
2014-01-11Hull City0-2ChelseaPremier League
2013-08-18Chelsea2-0Hull CityPremier League

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match