Everton VS Ipswich Football Prediction 19/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Everton vs Ipswich

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Everton 10, Ipswich 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

EvertonIpswich

1.36 xG per 90 1.14

1.36 npxG per 90 1.14

14.9 PPDA 15.6

6.0 Deep completions per 90 4.3

1.13 xPTS per 90 1.20

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Everton vs Ipswich: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Everton	Draw	Ipswich
Model	55%	22%	23%
Market	53%	25%	22%
Published	53%	24%	22%
Edge	+2%	-3%	+1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.46.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Everton vs Ipswich odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Everton, 27 snapshots since 2026-09-06.

Opened 1.71Now 1.80 +0.09

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Everton	1.71	1.80	+0.09
Draw	3.83	3.80	-0.03
Ipswich	4.97	4.33	-0.64

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Everton and Ipswich expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.17Everton

1.46Ipswich

Total expected goals: 3.63
Attack rating (Everton / Ipswich): 1.09 / 1.25
Defence rating (Everton / Ipswich): 0.94 / 1.31

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Everton vs Ipswich score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 2.3% 2.5% 1.2% 0.6% 1 4.2% 9.1% 5.8% 2.8% 1.4% 2 6.2% 9.0% 6.6% 3.2% 1.6% 3 4.7% 6.8% 5.0% 2.4% 1.2% 4+ 4.5% 6.6% 4.8% 2.4% 1.2%

Rows: Everton goals. Columns: Ipswich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Everton vs Ipswich goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 72%

Over 3.5 51%

Both teams to score: 70%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Everton vs Ipswich

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Everton	53%	1.87
	Draw	24%	4.10
	Ipswich	22%	4.50
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72%	1.39
	Under 2.5	28%	3.59
Both teams to score	Yes	70%	1.43
	No	30%	3.35
Double chance	1X (Everton or draw)	78%	1.29
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Ipswich)	47%	2.15
Handicap -1	Everton win by 2+	35%	2.87
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—