Coventry VS Brighton Football Prediction 13/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Coventry vs Brighton

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Coventry 3, Brighton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

CoventryBrighton

1.08 xG per 90 1.98

1.08 npxG per 90 1.98

17.4 PPDA 6.3

2.7 Deep completions per 90 9.5

1.12 xPTS per 90 1.59

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Coventry vs Brighton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Coventry	Draw	Brighton
Model	48%	25%	27%
Market	25%	25%	50%
Published	30%	25%	44%
Edge	+23%	-1%	-23%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Coventry vs Brighton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Brighton, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.67Now 1.93 +0.26

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Coventry	5.20	3.90	-1.30
Draw	3.70	3.78	+0.08
Brighton	1.67	1.93	+0.26

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Coventry and Brighton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84Coventry

1.43Brighton

Total expected goals: 3.28
Attack rating (Coventry / Brighton): 1.23 / 1.39
Defence rating (Coventry / Brighton): 0.84 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Coventry vs Brighton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 3.5% 3.5% 1.7% 0.8% 1 5.2% 11.0% 6.8% 3.3% 1.6% 2 6.4% 9.2% 6.6% 3.2% 1.6% 3 4.2% 6.0% 4.3% 2.0% 1.0% 4+ 3.1% 4.5% 3.2% 1.5% 0.8%

Rows: Coventry goals. Columns: Brighton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Coventry vs Brighton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 65%

Over 3.5 44%

Both teams to score: 67%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Coventry vs Brighton

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Coventry	30%	3.28
	Draw	25%	3.95
	Brighton	44%	2.26
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	65%	1.53
	Under 2.5	35%	2.89
Both teams to score	Yes	67%	1.50
	No	33%	2.99
Double chance	1X (Coventry or draw)	56%	1.79
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Brighton)	70%	1.44
Handicap -1	Brighton win by 2+	13%	7.80
	Push (exactly one goal)	14%	—