Why this pick: Bournemouth vs Brentford
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bournemouth 10, Brentford 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Bournemouth vs Brentford: model vs market
| Source | Bournemouth | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 20% | 25% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Published | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Edge | +16% | -6% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.77.
- The market prices Bournemouth below the model: +16.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Bournemouth vs Brentford odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bournemouth, 26 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 2.55 | 2.50 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.60 | +0.30 |
| Brentford | 2.75 | 2.72 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bournemouth and Brentford expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.23
- Attack rating (Bournemouth / Brentford)
- 1.36 / 1.48
- Defence rating (Bournemouth / Brentford)
- 0.98 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bournemouth vs Brentford score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bournemouth goals. Columns: Brentford goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bournemouth vs Brentford goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 78%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bournemouth vs Brentford
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 42% | 2.36 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Brentford | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78% | 1.29 |
| No | 22% | 4.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bournemouth or draw) | 67% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Brentford) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win by 2+ | 36% | 2.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Bournemouth and Brentford recent form
Bournemouth
1W 4D 1L
Brentford
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bournemouth at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Brentford away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Bournemouth at home only, Brentford away only.
Injuries & availability
Bournemouth absences
-
A. Adli
calf injury
-
E. J. Kroupi
foot injury
-
J. Araujo
thigh injury
-
V. Milosavljevic
injury
Brentford absences
-
A. Milambo
knee injury
-
J. Dasilva
injury
-
M. Jensen
muscle injury
-
N. Collins
injury
-
S. van den Berg
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Bournemouth lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 3 A. Truffert
- 14 António Silva
- 5 J. Hill
- 15 A. Smith
- 12 T. Adams
- 8 A. Scott
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 19 J. Kluivert
- 37 Rayan
- 9 Evanilson
Bench: L. Cook, J. Soler, D. Brooks, R. Christie, B. Doak, B. Diakité, M. Di Gregorio, A. Tóth, Á. Rodríguez
Brentford lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 C. Kelleher
- 23 K. Lewis-Potter
- 44 Jannik Schuster
- 20 K. Ajer
- 2 A. Hickey
- 27 V. Janelt
- 6 Y. Yarmolyuk
- 18 M. Sangaré
- 7 K. Schade
- 9 Thiago
- 19 J. Anthony
Bench: R. Henry, D. Ouattara, H. Valdimarsson, C. Wilson, Fábio Carvalho, M. Damsgaard, E. Diouf, M. Kayode, Gustavo Gomes
Bournemouth vs Brentford head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Bournemouth 0 · draws 3 · Brentford 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Bournemouth | 0-0 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2025-12-27 | Brentford | 4-1 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2025-08-26 | Bournemouth | 0-2 | Brentford | League Cup |
| 2025-03-15 | Bournemouth | 1-2 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2024-11-09 | Brentford | 3-2 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2024-05-11 | Bournemouth | 1-2 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2023-09-02 | Brentford | 2-2 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2023-01-14 | Brentford | 2-0 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2022-10-01 | Bournemouth | 0-0 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2021-05-22 | Brentford | 3-1 | Bournemouth | Championship |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Liverpool v Fulham — match page 2026-09-12
- Chelsea vs Hull City — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Crystal Palace vs Ipswich 2026-09-12
- Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest — match page 2026-09-12
- Tottenham vs Everton — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Sunderland vs Arsenal 2026-09-12
- Coventry v Brighton — match page 2026-09-13
- Manchester United vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Bournemouth, previous: Newcastle United v Bournemouth analysis
- Bournemouth, next: Bournemouth – Liverpool, 2026-09-20
- Brentford, previous: Brentford v Sunderland analysis
- Brentford, next: Brentford – Chelsea, 2026-09-18