Why this pick: Arsenal vs Chelsea
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Arsenal 10, Chelsea 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Arsenal vs Chelsea: model vs market
| Source | Arsenal | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Arsenal vs Chelsea odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.62 | 1.71 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.85 | +0.15 |
| Chelsea | 5.10 | 5.03 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arsenal and Chelsea expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Arsenal / Chelsea)
- 1.20 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Arsenal / Chelsea)
- 0.67 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arsenal vs Chelsea score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Chelsea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arsenal vs Chelsea goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arsenal vs Chelsea
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 56% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Chelsea | 19% | 5.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.80 |
| No | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arsenal or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Chelsea) | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win by 2+ | 35% | 2.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Arsenal and Chelsea recent form
Arsenal
5W 1D 0L
Chelsea
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arsenal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Chelsea away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal at home only, Chelsea away only.
Injuries & availability
Arsenal absences
-
Bruno Guimaraes
knock
-
C. Mosquera
injury
-
J. Timber
ankle injury
-
W. Saliba
back injury
Chelsea absences
-
J. Henderson
wrist injury
-
M. Caicedo
injury
-
M. Palestra
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Arsenal vs Chelsea head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Arsenal 7 · draws 3 · Chelsea 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Arsenal | 2-1 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2026-02-03 | Arsenal | 1-0 | Chelsea | League Cup |
| 2026-01-14 | Chelsea | 2-3 | Arsenal | League Cup |
| 2025-11-30 | Chelsea | 1-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2025-03-16 | Arsenal | 1-0 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2024-11-10 | Chelsea | 1-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2024-04-23 | Arsenal | 5-0 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2023-10-21 | Chelsea | 2-2 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2023-05-02 | Arsenal | 3-1 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2022-11-06 | Chelsea | 0-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Ipswich vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-09-04
- Newcastle United vs Bournemouth 2026-09-05
- Fulham v Crystal Palace — match page 2026-09-05
- Manchester City vs Coventry — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Brighton vs Leeds 2026-09-05
- Brentford v Sunderland — match page 2026-09-05
- Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Hull City vs Aston Villa 2026-09-05
Before and after this match
- Arsenal, previous: Aston Villa vs Arsenal prediction
- Arsenal, next: Sunderland – Arsenal, 2026-09-12
- Chelsea, previous: Chelsea vs Brighton prediction
- Chelsea, next: Chelsea – Hull City, 2026-09-12