Why this pick: Brighton vs Arsenal
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brighton 10, Arsenal 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Brighton vs Arsenal: model vs market
| Source | Brighton | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| Market | 20% | 24% | 56% |
| Published | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Edge | +20% | 0% | -20% |
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Brighton vs Arsenal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 27 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 4.49 | 4.75 | +0.26 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.90 | +0.20 |
| Arsenal | 1.81 | 1.70 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brighton and Arsenal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.57
- Attack rating (Brighton / Arsenal)
- 1.52 / 1.40
- Defence rating (Brighton / Arsenal)
- 1.03 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brighton vs Arsenal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brighton goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brighton vs Arsenal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brighton vs Arsenal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brighton | 25% | 4.01 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Arsenal | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brighton or draw) | 49% | 2.03 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Arsenal) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win by 2+ | 19% | 5.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Brighton and Arsenal recent form
Brighton
4W 1D 1L
Arsenal
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brighton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Arsenal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Brighton at home only, Arsenal away only.
Injuries & availability
Brighton absences
-
E. Ferguson
ankle injury
-
F. Azeez
abdominal strain
-
J. Hadjam
injury
-
J. Hinshelwood
injury
-
K. Mitoma
hamstring injury
-
M. Svoboda
injury
-
M. Wieffer
knee injury
-
S. Tzimas
knee injury
-
Y. Minteh
injury
-
Z. Yohanna
lacking match fitness
Arsenal absences
-
B. White
groin injury
-
C. Mosquera
muscle injury
-
W. Saliba
back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Brighton lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 21 O. Boscagli
- 4 P. Struijk
- 44 L. Vušković
- 24 F. Kadıoğlu
- 26 Y. Ayari
- 14 José María Andrés Baixauli
- 29 M. De Cuyper
- 13 P. Groß
- 25 D. Gómez
- 19 C. Kostoulas
Bench: J. Hadjam, G. Rutter, P. David, I. Osman, Costinha, J. Steele, M. Svoboda, M. O'Riley, M. Yalcouyé
Arsenal lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 David Raya
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 6 Gabriel Magalhães
- 15 E. Konsa
- 12 J. Timber
- 39 Bruno Guimarães
- 41 D. Rice
- 17 C. Tzolis
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 7 B. Saka
- 29 K. Havertz
Bench: P. Hincapié, E. Eze, Kepa, V. Gyökeres, N. Madueke, Mikel Merino, Martín Zubimendi, M. Lewis-Skelly, M. Dowman
Brighton vs Arsenal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Brighton 2 · draws 2 · Arsenal 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Brighton | 0-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2025-12-27 | Arsenal | 2-1 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2025-10-29 | Arsenal | 2-0 | Brighton | League Cup |
| 2025-01-04 | Brighton | 1-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2024-08-31 | Arsenal | 1-1 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2024-04-06 | Brighton | 0-3 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2023-12-17 | Arsenal | 2-0 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2023-05-14 | Arsenal | 0-3 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2022-12-31 | Brighton | 2-4 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2022-11-09 | Arsenal | 1-3 | Brighton | League Cup |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Brentford v Chelsea — match page 2026-09-18
- Tottenham vs Aston Villa — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Newcastle United vs Hull City 2026-09-19
- Everton v Ipswich — match page 2026-09-19
- Nottingham Forest vs Coventry — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Manchester City vs Sunderland — team news & stats 2026-09-20
- Leeds v Crystal Palace — match page 2026-09-20
- Bournemouth vs Liverpool 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Brighton, previous: Coventry v Brighton analysis
- Brighton, next: Sunderland vs Brighton: odds and pick
- Arsenal, previous: Sunderland – Arsenal, 2026-09-12
- Arsenal, next: Arsenal vs Leeds: odds and pick