Updated

Premier League · Matchday 5

Manchester City vs Sunderland

· Etihad Stadium, Manchester· Referee Robert Jones

Full time5 – 3

BCCFC prediction was Manchester City to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Manchester CityDrawSunderland

Why this pick: Manchester City vs Sunderland

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Manchester City 10, Sunderland 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Manchester CitySunderland
2.17 xG per 90 1.59
2.17 npxG per 90 1.40
10.8 PPDA 10.9
11.1 Deep completions per 90 7.8
1.96 xPTS per 90 1.54

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Manchester City vs Sunderland: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceManchester CityDrawSunderland
Model64%22%14%
Market71%18%11%
Published70%19%12%
Edge-7%+4%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.95.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Manchester City vs Sunderland odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Manchester City, 29 snapshots since 2026-09-06.

Opened 1.25Now 1.34 +0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Manchester City1.251.34+0.09
Draw5.705.45-0.25
Sunderland9.408.75-0.65

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Manchester City and Sunderland expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.09Manchester City
0.95Sunderland
Total expected goals
3.04
Attack rating (Manchester City / Sunderland)
1.55 / 1.05
Defence rating (Manchester City / Sunderland)
0.73 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Manchester City vs Sunderland score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 2.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 1 8.1% 10.3% 4.3% 1.4% 0.4% 2 10.3% 9.9% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 3 7.6% 7.2% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 4+ 6.9% 6.6% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3%

Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Sunderland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Manchester City vs Sunderland goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Manchester City vs Sunderland

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Manchester City70%1.44
Draw19%5.36
Sunderland12%8.57
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.64
Under 2.539%2.56
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.79
No44%2.27
Double chance1X (Manchester City or draw)88%1.13
12 (either side)81%1.23
X2 (draw or Sunderland)30%3.30
Handicap -1Manchester City win by 2+42%2.37
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Manchester City and Sunderland recent form

Manchester City 6W 0D 0L
Sunderland 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Manchester City at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Sunderland away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Manchester City at home only, Sunderland away only.

Injuries & availability

Manchester City absences

  • J. Doku calf injury
  • P. Foden suspended

Sunderland absences

  • H. Diarra hamstring injury
  • O. Alderete injury
  • R. Mandava suspended
  • R. Mundle knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Manchester City lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 G. Donnarumma
  2. 24 J. Gvardiol
  3. 6 M. Guéhi
  4. 3 Rúben Dias
  5. 27 Matheus Nunes
  6. 5 E. Anderson
  7. 17 E. Fernández
  8. 7 I. Ndiaye
  9. 10 R. Cherki
  10. 42 A. Semenyo
  11. 9 E. Haaland

Bench: M. Kovačić, J. Doku, R. Aït-Nouri, G. Rulli, A. Bouaddi, N. O'Reilly, Allan, A. Khusanov, R. Lewis

Sunderland lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 R. Roefs
  2. 6 D. Methalie
  3. 5 D. Ballard
  4. 4 K. Danso
  5. 20 N. Mukiele
  6. 27 N. Sadiki
  7. 34 G. Xhaka
  8. 10 N. Angulo
  9. 28 E. Le Fée
  10. 12 T. Meunier
  11. 9 B. Brobbey

Bench: C. Talbi, C. Rigg, L. O'Nien, O. Alderete, W. Isidor, Jules Ahoka, M. Ellborg, T. Hume, M. Fofana

Manchester City vs Sunderland head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Manchester City 8 · draws 2 · Sunderland 0.

Manchester CityDrawsSunderland
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-01Sunderland0-0Manchester CityPremier League
2025-12-06Manchester City3-0SunderlandPremier League
2017-03-05Sunderland0-2Manchester CityPremier League
2016-08-13Manchester City2-1SunderlandPremier League
2016-02-02Sunderland0-1Manchester CityPremier League
2015-12-26Manchester City4-1SunderlandPremier League
2015-09-22Sunderland1-4Manchester CityLeague Cup
2015-01-01Manchester City3-2SunderlandPremier League
2014-12-03Sunderland1-4Manchester CityPremier League
2014-04-16Manchester City2-2SunderlandPremier League

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match