Why this pick: Brentford vs Sunderland
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brentford 10, Sunderland 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Brentford vs Sunderland: model vs market
| Source | Brentford | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| Market | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Published | 57% | 24% | 20% |
| Edge | +6% | -4% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 1.37.
- The market prices Brentford below the model: +5.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Brentford vs Sunderland odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brentford, 23 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford | 1.69 | 1.74 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.88 | -0.02 |
| Sunderland | 4.90 | 4.82 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brentford and Sunderland expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.76
- Attack rating (Brentford / Sunderland)
- 1.53 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Brentford / Sunderland)
- 1.13 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brentford vs Sunderland score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brentford goals. Columns: Sunderland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brentford vs Sunderland goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brentford vs Sunderland
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brentford | 57% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Sunderland | 20% | 5.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brentford or draw) | 80% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Sunderland) | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brentford win by 2+ | 41% | 2.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Brentford and Sunderland recent form
Brentford
2W 3D 1L
Sunderland
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brentford at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Sunderland away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Brentford at home only, Sunderland away only.
Injuries & availability
Brentford absences
-
A. Milambo
knee injury
-
J. Dasilva
injury
-
M. Jensen
muscle injury
-
S. van den Berg
injury
Sunderland absences
-
H. Diarra
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Brentford vs Sunderland head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Brentford 2 · draws 1 · Sunderland 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | Brentford | 3-0 | Sunderland | Premier League |
| 2025-08-30 | Sunderland | 2-1 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 2018-02-17 | Sunderland | 0-2 | Brentford | Championship |
| 2017-10-21 | Brentford | 3-3 | Sunderland | Championship |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Ipswich vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-09-04
- Newcastle United vs Bournemouth 2026-09-05
- Fulham v Crystal Palace — match page 2026-09-05
- Manchester City vs Coventry — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Brighton vs Leeds 2026-09-05
- Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Hull City vs Aston Villa 2026-09-05
- Everton v Manchester United — match page 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Brentford, previous: Leeds – Brentford, 2026-08-30
- Brentford, next: Bournemouth vs Brentford: odds and pick
- Sunderland, previous: Sunderland v Fulham analysis
- Sunderland, next: Sunderland – Arsenal, 2026-09-12