Updated

Premier League · Matchday 5

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry

· City Ground, Nottingham· Referee Jarred Gillett

Full time0 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Nottingham Forest to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Nottingham ForestDrawCoventry

Why this pick: Nottingham Forest vs Coventry

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nottingham Forest 10, Coventry 5). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Nottingham ForestCoventry
1.78 xG per 90 1.07
1.63 npxG per 90 1.07
14.6 PPDA 23.8
6.3 Deep completions per 90 4.0
1.64 xPTS per 90 0.93

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNottingham ForestDrawCoventry
Model52%24%24%
Market58%24%18%
Published57%24%19%
Edge-6%0%+6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.40.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Nottingham Forest, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-06.

Opened 1.77Now 1.65 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Nottingham Forest1.771.65-0.12
Draw3.794.03+0.24
Coventry4.585.42+0.84

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Nottingham Forest and Coventry expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.00Nottingham Forest
1.40Coventry
Total expected goals
3.40
Attack rating (Nottingham Forest / Coventry)
1.06 / 1.04
Defence rating (Nottingham Forest / Coventry)
1.09 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.4% 2.9% 3.0% 1.4% 0.7% 1 5.0% 10.2% 6.2% 2.9% 1.4% 2 6.6% 9.3% 6.5% 3.1% 1.5% 3 4.7% 6.5% 4.6% 2.1% 1.0% 4+ 4.0% 5.6% 3.9% 1.8% 0.9%

Rows: Nottingham Forest goals. Columns: Coventry goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nottingham Forest vs Coventry

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Nottingham Forest57%1.76
Draw24%4.20
Coventry19%5.18
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.47
Under 2.532%3.12
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.48
No33%3.07
Double chance1X (Nottingham Forest or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Coventry)43%2.32
Handicap -1Nottingham Forest win by 2+32%3.12
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Nottingham Forest and Coventry recent form

Nottingham Forest 1W 3D 2L
Coventry 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Nottingham Forest at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Coventry away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Nottingham Forest at home only, Coventry away only.

Injuries & availability

Nottingham Forest absences

  • Cunha muscle injury
  • N. Milenkovic muscle injury
  • N. Savona knee injury

Coventry absences

  • A. Amenda calf injury
  • H. Wright muscle injury
  • J. Eccles injury
  • K. Kesler-Hayden muscle injury
  • L. Woolfenden knee injury
  • T. Awoniyi suspended

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Nottingham Forest lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 26 M. Sels
  2. 5 Murillo
  3. 2 O. Diomande
  4. 23 Jair
  5. 3 N. Williams
  6. 24 J. McAtee
  7. 21 X. Schlager
  8. 27 D. Muñoz
  9. 10 M. Gibbs-White
  10. 14 D. Ndoye
  11. 19 L. Delap

Bench: I. Sangaré, C. Hudson-Odoi, N. Domínguez, C. Wood, Igor Jesus, John, R. Yates, L. Netz, O. Aina

Coventry lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 19 C. Rushworth
  2. 2 E. Pinnock
  3. 4 B. Thomas
  4. 12 S. Mfuni
  5. 3 J. Dasilva
  6. 6 M. Grimes
  7. 16 F. Onyeka
  8. 8 Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi
  9. 10 E. Mason-Clark
  10. 5 J. Rudoni
  11. 23 B. Thomas-Asante

Bench: T. Sakamoto, E. Simms, L. Tchaouna, J. Latibeaudiere, D. Bentley, V. Torp, Y. Gboho, G. Hamer, S. Cherif

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Nottingham Forest 4 · draws 0 · Coventry 3.

Nottingham ForestDrawsCoventry
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2022-07-08Nottingham Forest1-3CoventryFriendlies Clubs
2022-04-06Nottingham Forest2-0CoventryChampionship
2021-08-08Coventry2-1Nottingham ForestChampionship
2021-02-02Coventry1-2Nottingham ForestChampionship
2020-11-04Nottingham Forest2-1CoventryChampionship
2012-02-18Nottingham Forest2-0CoventryChampionship
2011-10-15Coventry1-0Nottingham ForestChampionship

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match