Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest preview
Crystal Palace has a 40% probability of winning, while Nottingham Forest stands at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Crystal Palace's expected goals are 2.04 compared to Nottingham Forest's 1.36. Both teams to score is projected at 67%, and there is a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows Crystal Palace with a record of D-W-L-W-W-L, while Nottingham Forest has L-W-D-D-L-L. In their last 6 encounters, Crystal Palace has not secured a win, with 5 draws and 1 win for Nottingham Forest. The confidence grade is A, but the lack of recent wins for Crystal Palace raises questions about their current performance.
Why this pick: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Crystal Palace 10, Nottingham Forest 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: model vs market
| Source | Crystal Palace | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Published | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Edge | +18% | -5% | -13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Crystal Palace below the model: +18.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.78, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Crystal Palace, 54 snapshots since 2026-09-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 2.50 | 2.67 | +0.17 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.38 | +0.17 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2.90 | 2.65 | -0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.40
- Attack rating (Crystal Palace / Nottingham Forest)
- 1.29 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Crystal Palace / Nottingham Forest)
- 1.05 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Crystal Palace goals. Columns: Nottingham Forest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crystal Palace | 40% | 2.48 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Nottingham Forest | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Crystal Palace or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Nottingham Forest) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Crystal Palace win by 2+ | 34% | 2.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest recent form
Crystal Palace
3W 1D 2L
Nottingham Forest
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Crystal Palace at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Nottingham Forest away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Crystal Palace at home only, Nottingham Forest away only.
Injuries & availability
Crystal Palace
-
A. Disasi
suspended
- A. Khalaili muscle injury
-
C. Riad
knee injury
-
D. Henderson
foot injury
-
J. Mateta
hamstring injury
- T. Tomiyasu calf injury
Nottingham Forest
-
N. Savona
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Crystal Palace 0 · draws 5 · Nottingham Forest 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Nottingham Forest | 1-1 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2025-08-24 | Crystal Palace | 1-1 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2025-05-05 | Crystal Palace | 1-1 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2024-10-21 | Nottingham Forest | 1-0 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2024-03-30 | Nottingham Forest | 1-1 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2023-10-07 | Crystal Palace | 0-0 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Arsenal vs Leeds — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth 2026-10-10
- Ipswich v Fulham — match page 2026-10-10
- Aston Villa vs Brentford — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Sunderland vs Brighton 2026-10-10
- Manchester United v Tottenham — match page 2026-10-10
- Hull City vs Everton 2026-10-11
- Liverpool v Manchester City — match page 2026-10-11