Why this pick: Newcastle United vs Hull City
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Newcastle United 10, Hull City 5). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Newcastle United vs Hull City: model vs market
| Source | Newcastle United | Draw | Hull City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 32% | 39% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 18% |
| Published | 52% | 25% | 24% |
| Edge | -31% | +10% | +21% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Newcastle United vs Hull City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Newcastle United, 27 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 1.40 | 1.61 | +0.21 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 4.33 | -0.67 |
| Hull City | 7.50 | 5.20 | -2.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Newcastle United and Hull City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.29
- Attack rating (Newcastle United / Hull City)
- 1.00 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Newcastle United / Hull City)
- 1.26 / 0.66
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Newcastle United vs Hull City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Newcastle United goals. Columns: Hull City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Newcastle United vs Hull City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Newcastle United vs Hull City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newcastle United | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Hull City | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Newcastle United or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Hull City) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Newcastle United win by 2+ | 12% | 8.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Newcastle United and Hull City recent form
Newcastle United
3W 2D 1L
Hull City
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Newcastle United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Hull City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Newcastle United at home only, Hull City away only.
Injuries & availability
Newcastle United absences
-
A. Dedic
injury
-
A. Elanga
knee injury
-
D. Burn
ankle injury
-
E. Jaouen
ankle injury
-
J. Ramsey
injury
-
Joelinton
thigh injury
-
Nico
injury
-
W. Osula
injury
Hull City absences
-
C. Hughes
groin injury
-
D. Gyabi
groin injury
-
E. Matazo
knee injury
-
H. Morita
calf injury
-
I. Ansah
back injury
-
J. Butland
arm injury
-
M. Targett
ankle injury
-
N. Mendy
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Newcastle United lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 21 L. Horníček
- 3 L. Hall
- 4 S. Botman
- 12 M. Thiaw
- 23 J. Murphy
- 67 L. Miley
- 14 Sean Steur
- 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
- 28 J. Willock
- 11 H. Barnes
- 9 Y. Wissa
Bench: N. Pope, F. Schär, A. Bamba, B. Touré, K. Thompson, Miodrag Pivaš, V. Salia, M. Miley, M. Mills
Hull City lineup · 5-4-1
- 19 K. Tzolakis
- 3 R. Giles
- 22 L. Herrington
- 15 J. Egan
- 6 S. Ajayi
- 2 L. Coyle
- 7 S. Thomas
- 27 R. Slater
- 25 M. Crooks
- 10 M. Belloumi
- 9 O. McBurnie
Bench: J. Gelhardt, D. Phillips, J. Hjertø-Dahl, P. McNair, E. Stroud, L. Gourna-Douath, T. Iroegbunam, R. Vaz, M. Cho
Newcastle United vs Hull City head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Newcastle United 3 · draws 2 · Hull City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-27 | Hull City | 0-2 | Newcastle United | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2016-11-29 | Hull City | 1-1 | Newcastle United | League Cup |
| 2015-01-31 | Hull City | 0-3 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2014-09-20 | Newcastle United | 2-2 | Hull City | Premier League |
| 2014-03-01 | Hull City | 1-4 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2013-09-21 | Newcastle United | 2-3 | Hull City | Premier League |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Brentford v Chelsea — match page 2026-09-18
- Tottenham vs Aston Villa — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Everton v Ipswich — match page 2026-09-19
- Brighton vs Arsenal 2026-09-19
- Nottingham Forest vs Coventry — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Manchester City vs Sunderland — team news & stats 2026-09-20
- Leeds v Crystal Palace — match page 2026-09-20
- Bournemouth vs Liverpool 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Newcastle United, previous: Leeds vs Newcastle United prediction
- Newcastle United, next: Coventry vs Newcastle United prediction
- Hull City, previous: Chelsea – Hull City, 2026-09-12
- Hull City, next: Hull City v Everton analysis