Coventry vs Newcastle United preview
Coventry has a 33% probability of winning, while Newcastle United stands at 40%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a 7% probability. Despite Coventry's higher expected goals of 1.77 compared to Newcastle's 1.36, this does not prove they will outperform their opponents.
Both teams to score has a probability of 64%, and over 2.5 goals is at 62%. Coventry's recent form shows a mixed bag with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Newcastle United has won 4 of their last 6. The confidence grade is B, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. The largest source of doubt lies in the contrasting recent forms of the two teams.
Why this pick: Coventry vs Newcastle United
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Coventry 6, Newcastle United 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Coventry vs Newcastle United: model vs market
| Source | Coventry | Draw | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 26% | 27% |
| Market | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Published | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Edge | +19% | -1% | -19% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Coventry vs Newcastle United odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Newcastle United, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry | 3.38 | 3.33 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.62 | +0.02 |
| Newcastle United | 2.05 | 2.10 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Coventry and Newcastle United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Coventry / Newcastle United)
- 1.02 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Coventry / Newcastle United)
- 1.11 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Coventry vs Newcastle United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Coventry goals. Columns: Newcastle United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Coventry vs Newcastle United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Coventry vs Newcastle United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coventry | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Newcastle United | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Coventry or draw) | 59% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Newcastle United) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Newcastle United win by 2+ | 12% | 8.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Coventry and Newcastle United recent form
Coventry
2W 0D 4L
Newcastle United
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Coventry at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Newcastle United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Coventry at home only, Newcastle United away only.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
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- Sunderland vs Brighton 2026-10-10
- Manchester United v Tottenham — match page 2026-10-10
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Hull City vs Everton 2026-10-11
- Liverpool v Manchester City — match page 2026-10-11