Updated

Premier League · Matchday 5

Brentford vs Chelsea

· Gtech Community Stadium, London· Referee Andrew Madley

Full time3 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Brentford to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BrentfordDrawChelsea

Why this pick: Brentford vs Chelsea

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brentford 10, Chelsea 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

BrentfordChelsea
1.70 xG per 90 1.46
1.53 npxG per 90 1.38
9.6 PPDA 15.0
7.2 Deep completions per 90 8.0
1.21 xPTS per 90 1.05

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Brentford vs Chelsea: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBrentfordDrawChelsea
Model54%20%26%
Market37%26%38%
Published41%24%35%
Edge+18%-6%-11%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 1.91.
  • The market prices Brentford below the model: +17.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Brentford vs Chelsea odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Brentford, 26 snapshots since 2026-09-06.

Opened 2.67Now 2.63 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Brentford2.672.63-0.04
Draw3.573.75+0.18
Chelsea2.542.55+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Brentford and Chelsea expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.57Brentford
1.91Chelsea
Total expected goals
4.48
Attack rating (Brentford / Chelsea)
1.39 / 1.32
Defence rating (Brentford / Chelsea)
1.17 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Brentford vs Chelsea score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.8% 1.1% 1.8% 1.2% 0.9% 1 1.9% 5.9% 4.9% 3.1% 2.3% 2 3.6% 6.9% 6.6% 4.2% 3.1% 3 3.3% 6.2% 6.0% 3.8% 2.8% 4+ 4.2% 8.1% 7.7% 4.9% 3.6%

Rows: Brentford goals. Columns: Chelsea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Brentford vs Chelsea goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 84%
Over 3.5 68%
Both teams to score
80%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Brentford vs Chelsea

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Brentford41%2.44
Draw24%4.14
Chelsea35%2.87
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584%1.19
Under 2.516%6.19
Both teams to scoreYes80%1.25
No20%5.06
Double chance1X (Brentford or draw)65%1.54
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Chelsea)59%1.69
Handicap -1Brentford win by 2+36%2.78
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Brentford and Chelsea recent form

Brentford 3W 3D 0L
Chelsea 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Brentford at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Chelsea away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Brentford at home only, Chelsea away only.

Injuries & availability

Brentford absences

  • J. Dasilva injury
  • K. Furo surgery
  • M. Jensen muscle injury
  • N. Collins injury
  • S. van den Berg injury

Chelsea absences

  • E. Emegha injury
  • J. Henderson wrist injury
  • Joao Pedro injury
  • M. Caicedo injury
  • M. Palestra injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Brentford lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 C. Kelleher
  2. 23 K. Lewis-Potter
  3. 20 K. Ajer
  4. 44 Jannik Schuster
  5. 33 M. Kayode
  6. 27 V. Janelt
  7. 6 Y. Yarmolyuk
  8. 7 K. Schade
  9. 24 M. Damsgaard
  10. 19 J. Anthony
  11. 9 Thiago

Bench: A. Hickey, R. Henry, D. Ouattara, C. Wilson, Fábio Carvalho, M. Sangaré, E. Diouf, E. Balcombe, B. Fredrick

Chelsea lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 E. Martínez
  2. 6 L. Colwill
  3. 5 M. Lacroix
  4. 3 W. Fofana
  5. 29 Pep Chavarría
  6. 4 V. Barco
  7. 14 J. Henderson
  8. 7 Pedro Neto
  9. 17 M. Rogers
  10. 10 C. Palmer
  11. 18 D. Welbeck

Bench: J. Bynoe-Gittens, J. Hato, Geovany Tcherno Quenda, M. Gusto, M. Nicoll-Jazuli, Joshua Kofi Acheampong, M. Penders, Estêvão, R. Lavia

Brentford vs Chelsea head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Brentford 3 · draws 4 · Chelsea 3.

BrentfordDrawsChelsea
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-17Chelsea2-0BrentfordPremier League
2025-09-13Brentford2-2ChelseaPremier League
2025-04-06Brentford0-0ChelseaPremier League
2024-12-15Chelsea2-1BrentfordPremier League
2024-03-02Brentford2-2ChelseaPremier League
2023-10-28Chelsea0-2BrentfordPremier League
2023-04-26Chelsea0-2BrentfordPremier League
2022-10-19Brentford0-0ChelseaPremier League
2022-04-02Chelsea1-4BrentfordPremier League
2021-12-22Brentford0-2ChelseaLeague Cup

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match