Updated

Premier League · Matchday 5

Bournemouth vs Liverpool

· Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth· Referee Michael Oliver

Full time0 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Liverpool to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

5% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BournemouthDrawLiverpool

Why this pick: Bournemouth vs Liverpool

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bournemouth 10, Liverpool 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

BournemouthLiverpool
1.69 xG per 90 1.64
1.59 npxG per 90 1.55
10.4 PPDA 9.8
6.6 Deep completions per 90 6.1
1.62 xPTS per 90 1.39

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Bournemouth vs Liverpool: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBournemouthDrawLiverpool
Model58%22%21%
Market31%25%44%
Published37%24%38%
Edge+27%-3%-24%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bournemouth vs Liverpool odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Liverpool, 29 snapshots since 2026-09-06.

Opened 2.17Now 2.15 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bournemouth3.083.10+0.02
Draw3.723.80+0.08
Liverpool2.172.15-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bournemouth and Liverpool expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.23Bournemouth
1.38Liverpool
Total expected goals
3.61
Attack rating (Bournemouth / Liverpool)
1.39 / 1.20
Defence rating (Bournemouth / Liverpool)
0.93 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bournemouth vs Liverpool score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 2.2% 2.3% 1.1% 0.5% 1 4.5% 9.0% 5.4% 2.5% 1.2% 2 6.6% 9.1% 6.3% 2.9% 1.4% 3 5.2% 7.1% 4.9% 2.3% 1.1% 4+ 5.2% 7.3% 5.0% 2.3% 1.1%

Rows: Bournemouth goals. Columns: Liverpool goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bournemouth vs Liverpool goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 51%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bournemouth vs Liverpool

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bournemouth37%2.67
Draw24%4.13
Liverpool38%2.61
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.39
Under 2.528%3.56
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.45
No31%3.22
Double chance1X (Bournemouth or draw)62%1.62
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Liverpool)63%1.60
Handicap -1Liverpool win by 2+9%10.84
Push (exactly one goal)11%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bournemouth and Liverpool recent form

Bournemouth 2W 3D 1L
Liverpool 3W 3D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bournemouth at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Liverpool away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Bournemouth at home only, Liverpool away only.

Injuries & availability

Bournemouth absences

  • A. Adli calf injury
  • E. J. Kroupi foot injury
  • J. Araujo thigh injury
  • V. Milosavljevic injury

Liverpool absences

  • C. Bradley knee injury
  • F. Chiesa back injury
  • G. Leoni knee injury
  • H. Ekitike achilles tendon injury
  • I. Mabaya injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bournemouth lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Đ. Petrović
  2. 3 A. Truffert
  3. 14 António Silva
  4. 5 J. Hill
  5. 15 A. Smith
  6. 8 A. Scott
  7. 12 T. Adams
  8. 16 M. Tavernier
  9. 10 R. Christie
  10. 37 Rayan
  11. 9 Evanilson

Bench: L. Cook, J. Soler, D. Brooks, B. Doak, B. Diakité, M. Di Gregorio, Juanlu Sánchez, A. Tóth, D. Jebbison

Liverpool lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Alisson Becker
  2. 6 M. Kerkez
  3. 5 J. Jacquet
  4. 4 V. van Dijk
  5. 33 R. Araújo
  6. 8 D. Szoboszlai
  7. 10 A. Mac Allister
  8. 18 C. Gakpo
  9. 7 F. Wirtz
  10. 29 B. Barcola
  11. 9 A. Isak

Bench: J. Gomez, K. Tsimikas, Víctor Muñoz, G. Mamardashvili, J. Frimpong, R. Gravenberch, T. Nyoni, L. Koumas, R. Ngumoha

Bournemouth vs Liverpool head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Bournemouth 2 · draws 0 · Liverpool 8.

BournemouthDrawsLiverpool
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-24Bournemouth3-2LiverpoolPremier League
2025-08-15Liverpool4-2BournemouthPremier League
2025-02-01Bournemouth0-2LiverpoolPremier League
2024-09-21Liverpool3-0BournemouthPremier League
2024-01-21Bournemouth0-4LiverpoolPremier League
2023-11-01Bournemouth1-2LiverpoolLeague Cup
2023-08-19Liverpool3-1BournemouthPremier League
2023-03-11Bournemouth1-0LiverpoolPremier League
2022-08-27Liverpool9-0BournemouthPremier League
2020-03-07Liverpool2-1BournemouthPremier League

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match