Updated

Premier League · Matchday 5

Leeds vs Crystal Palace

· Elland Road, Leeds· Referee Adam Herczeg

Full time0 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Leeds to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LeedsDrawCrystal Palace

Why this pick: Leeds vs Crystal Palace

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Leeds 10, Crystal Palace 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LeedsCrystal Palace
1.56 xG per 90 1.63
1.47 npxG per 90 1.53
10.9 PPDA 19.3
4.7 Deep completions per 90 6.2
1.37 xPTS per 90 1.02

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Leeds vs Crystal Palace: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLeedsDrawCrystal Palace
Model40%22%38%
Market56%24%20%
Published52%24%24%
Edge-15%-2%+18%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Leeds vs Crystal Palace odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Leeds, 29 snapshots since 2026-09-06.

Opened 2.05Now 1.72 -0.33
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Leeds2.051.72-0.33
Draw3.353.96+0.61
Crystal Palace3.184.85+1.67

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Leeds and Crystal Palace expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.08Leeds
2.11Crystal Palace
Total expected goals
4.18
Attack rating (Leeds / Crystal Palace)
1.27 / 1.35
Defence rating (Leeds / Crystal Palace)
1.26 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Leeds vs Crystal Palace score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.3% 1.9% 3.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1 2.0% 7.3% 6.7% 4.7% 4.0% 2 3.3% 6.9% 7.3% 5.1% 4.4% 3 2.4% 5.0% 5.3% 3.7% 3.2% 4+ 2.1% 4.5% 4.8% 3.3% 2.9%

Rows: Leeds goals. Columns: Crystal Palace goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Leeds vs Crystal Palace goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 62%
Both teams to score
79%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Leeds vs Crystal Palace

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Leeds52%1.92
Draw24%4.23
Crystal Palace24%4.11
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.25
Under 2.520%5.03
Both teams to scoreYes79%1.27
No21%4.73
Double chance1X (Leeds or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Crystal Palace)48%2.08
Handicap -1Leeds win by 2+24%4.22
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Leeds and Crystal Palace recent form

Leeds 3W 2D 1L
Crystal Palace 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Leeds at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Crystal Palace away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Leeds at home only, Crystal Palace away only.

Injuries & availability

Leeds absences

  • H. Wilson muscle injury
  • J. Rodon muscle injury
  • M. Joseph knee injury

Crystal Palace absences

  • A. Disasi suspended
  • C. Riad knee injury
  • D. Henderson foot injury
  • J. Mateta hamstring injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Leeds lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 J. Trafford
  2. 24 J. Justin
  3. 5 T. Muharemović
  4. 30 N. Elvedi
  5. 3 G. Gudmundsson
  6. 22 A. Tanaka
  7. 4 E. Ampadu
  8. 18 A. Stach
  9. 2 J. Bogle
  10. 19 N. Okafor
  11. 9 D. Calvert-Lewin

Bench: D. James, S. Longstaff, B. Aaronson, L. Nmecha, J. Bijol, M. Zetterer, J. Bahoya, M. Bard, I. Gruev

Crystal Palace lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 44 W. Benítez
  2. 6 J. Canvot
  3. 26 C. Richards
  4. 17 T. Tomiyasu
  5. 3 T. Mitchell
  6. 20 A. Wharton
  7. 23 Q. Timber
  8. 25 A. Khalaili
  9. 10 Yeremy Pino
  10. 18 D. Kamada
  11. 22 J. Strand Larsen

Bench: I. Sarr, J. Lerma, E. Nketiah, D. McNeil, D. Osorio, C. Doucouré, Óscar Mingueza, R. Matthews, B. Chilwell

Leeds vs Crystal Palace head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Leeds 3 · draws 4 · Crystal Palace 3.

LeedsDrawsCrystal Palace
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-15Crystal Palace0-0LeedsPremier League
2025-12-20Leeds4-1Crystal PalacePremier League
2023-04-09Leeds1-5Crystal PalacePremier League
2022-10-09Crystal Palace2-1LeedsPremier League
2022-07-22Crystal Palace1-1LeedsFriendlies Clubs
2022-04-25Crystal Palace0-0LeedsPremier League
2021-11-30Leeds1-0Crystal PalacePremier League
2021-02-08Leeds2-0Crystal PalacePremier League
2020-11-07Crystal Palace4-1LeedsPremier League
2013-03-09Crystal Palace2-2LeedsChampionship

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match