Hull City VS Everton Football Prediction 11/10/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Hull City vs Everton preview

Hull City has a 29% probability of winning, while Everton sits at 42%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance. Hull City has an expected goals figure of 1.17 compared to Everton's 1.09, suggesting a tight match. However, the recent form indicates Hull City has only one win in their last five matches, while Everton has won three of their last five.

Both teams to score stands at 49%, with over 2.5 goals at 41%. Hull City's recent performances include two draws, while Everton has shown more consistency with two wins and three draws. The confidence grade is B, but the lack of a clear advantage for either team raises questions about the outcome.

Why this pick: Hull City vs Everton

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hull City 6, Everton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Hull CityEverton

1.15 xG per 90 1.53

1.15 npxG per 90 1.53

17.3 PPDA 15.1

3.2 Deep completions per 90 5.8

1.09 xPTS per 90 1.30

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Hull City vs Everton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Hull City	Draw	Everton
Model	37%	32%	31%
Market	26%	28%	46%
Published	29%	29%	42%
Edge	+11%	+4%	-16%

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded 2026-10-09 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Hull City vs Everton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Everton, 52 snapshots since 2026-09-14.

Opened 2.05Now 2.05 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Hull City	3.80	3.65	-0.15
Draw	3.30	3.40	+0.10
Everton	2.05	2.05	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hull City and Everton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Hull City

1.09Everton

Total expected goals: 2.27
Attack rating (Hull City / Everton): 0.83 / 1.17
Defence rating (Hull City / Everton): 0.76 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hull City vs Everton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.7% 8.7% 5.8% 2.1% 0.7% 1 10.1% 15.1% 7.2% 2.6% 0.9% 2 7.4% 8.1% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 3 3.1% 3.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 1.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Hull City goals. Columns: Everton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hull City vs Everton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 69%

Over 2.5 41%

Over 3.5 21%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hull City vs Everton

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Hull City	29%	3.47
	Draw	29%	3.46
	Everton	42%	2.37
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	41%	2.43
	Under 2.5	59%	1.70
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.04
	No	51%	1.96
Double chance	1X (Hull City or draw)	58%	1.73
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Everton)	71%	1.40
Handicap -1	Everton win by 2+	13%	7.80
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—