Updated

Premier League · Matchday 4

Leeds vs Newcastle United

· Elland Road, Leeds· Referee Michael Salisbury, England

Full time4 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Leeds to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LeedsDrawNewcastle United

Why this pick: Leeds vs Newcastle United

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Leeds 10, Newcastle United 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LeedsNewcastle United
1.70 xG per 90 1.45
1.53 npxG per 90 1.45
11.1 PPDA 11.7
4.4 Deep completions per 90 8.1
1.42 xPTS per 90 1.17

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Leeds vs Newcastle United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLeedsDrawNewcastle United
Model52%22%27%
Market42%28%31%
Published44%26%30%
Edge+10%-6%-4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.71.
  • The market prices Leeds below the model: +9.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Leeds vs Newcastle United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Leeds, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-01.

Opened 2.25Now 2.30 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Leeds2.252.30+0.05
Draw3.203.50+0.30
Newcastle United2.453.16+0.71

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Leeds and Newcastle United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.26Leeds
1.71Newcastle United
Total expected goals
3.96
Attack rating (Leeds / Newcastle United)
1.21 / 1.04
Defence rating (Leeds / Newcastle United)
1.32 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Leeds vs Newcastle United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 1.9% 2.5% 1.4% 0.9% 1 3.0% 7.9% 5.9% 3.3% 2.1% 2 4.8% 8.1% 6.9% 4.0% 2.5% 3 3.8% 6.4% 5.5% 3.1% 2.0% 4+ 3.9% 6.7% 5.7% 3.2% 2.0%

Rows: Leeds goals. Columns: Newcastle United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Leeds vs Newcastle United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 77%
Over 3.5 58%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Leeds vs Newcastle United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Leeds44%2.25
Draw26%3.84
Newcastle United30%3.38
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577%1.29
Under 2.523%4.40
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.33
No25%4.04
Double chance1X (Leeds or draw)70%1.42
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Newcastle United)56%1.80
Handicap -1Leeds win by 2+33%3.05
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Leeds and Newcastle United recent form

Leeds 2W 2D 2L
Newcastle United 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Leeds at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Newcastle United away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Leeds at home only, Newcastle United away only.

Injuries & availability

Leeds absences

  • J. Rodon muscle injury
  • M. Joseph knee injury

Newcastle United absences

  • D. Burn ankle injury
  • E. Jaouen ankle injury
  • Joelinton thigh injury
  • W. Osula injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Leeds lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 J. Trafford
  2. 5 T. Muharemović
  3. 30 N. Elvedi
  4. 24 J. Justin
  5. 3 G. Gudmundsson
  6. 22 A. Tanaka
  7. 4 E. Ampadu
  8. 18 A. Stach
  9. 2 J. Bogle
  10. 19 N. Okafor
  11. 9 D. Calvert-Lewin

Bench: D. James, S. Longstaff, H. Wilson, B. Aaronson, L. Nmecha, J. Bijol, M. Zetterer, J. Bahoya, M. Bard

Newcastle United lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 21 L. Horníček
  2. 3 L. Hall
  3. 4 S. Botman
  4. 12 M. Thiaw
  5. 37 A. Dedić
  6. 67 L. Miley
  7. 6 Nico González
  8. 11 H. Barnes
  9. 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo
  10. 23 J. Murphy
  11. 9 Y. Wissa

Bench: N. Pope, T. Livramento, F. Schär, A. Bamba, Sean Steur, B. Touré, J. Willock, J. Ramsey, M. Miley

Leeds vs Newcastle United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Leeds 2 · draws 5 · Newcastle United 3.

LeedsDrawsNewcastle United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-07Newcastle United4-3LeedsPremier League
2025-08-30Leeds0-0Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2023-05-13Leeds2-2Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2022-12-31Newcastle United0-0LeedsPremier League
2022-01-22Leeds0-1Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2021-09-17Newcastle United1-1LeedsPremier League
2021-01-26Newcastle United1-2LeedsPremier League
2020-12-16Leeds5-2Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2017-04-14Newcastle United1-1LeedsChampionship
2016-11-20Leeds0-2Newcastle UnitedChampionship

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match