Updated

Premier League · Matchday 5

Fulham vs Manchester United

· Craven Cottage, London· Referee Peter Bankes

Full time1 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Manchester United to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FulhamDrawManchester United

Why this pick: Fulham vs Manchester United

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Fulham 10, Manchester United 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

FulhamManchester United
1.40 xG per 90 2.27
1.32 npxG per 90 2.18
11.1 PPDA 11.7
9.3 Deep completions per 90 9.8
1.23 xPTS per 90 1.88

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Fulham vs Manchester United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFulhamDrawManchester United
Model38%22%39%
Market27%25%48%
Published30%24%46%
Edge+11%-3%-8%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Fulham vs Manchester United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Manchester United, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-06.

Opened 1.99Now 2.00 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Fulham3.813.50-0.31
Draw3.983.80-0.18
Manchester United1.992.00+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fulham and Manchester United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.94Fulham
2.07Manchester United
Total expected goals
4.02
Attack rating (Fulham / Manchester United)
1.23 / 1.45
Defence rating (Fulham / Manchester United)
1.16 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fulham vs Manchester United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 2.3% 3.5% 2.4% 2.0% 1 2.3% 7.9% 7.2% 5.0% 4.1% 2 3.4% 7.1% 7.3% 5.1% 4.2% 3 2.3% 4.8% 5.0% 3.4% 2.9% 4+ 1.9% 3.9% 4.1% 2.8% 2.4%

Rows: Fulham goals. Columns: Manchester United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fulham vs Manchester United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 78%
Over 3.5 59%
Both teams to score
77%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fulham vs Manchester United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Fulham30%3.34
Draw24%4.09
Manchester United46%2.19
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.28
Under 2.522%4.52
Both teams to scoreYes77%1.30
No23%4.37
Double chance1X (Fulham or draw)54%1.84
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Manchester United)70%1.43
Handicap -1Manchester United win by 2+23%4.42
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Fulham and Manchester United recent form

Fulham 2W 1D 3L
Manchester United 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fulham at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Manchester United away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Fulham at home only, Manchester United away only.

Injuries & availability

Fulham absences

  • K. Tete concussion
  • R. Sessegnon groin injury
  • T. Cairney knee injury

Manchester United absences

  • A. Diallo injury
  • C. Baleba ankle injury
  • L. Shaw injury
  • M. Ugarte knee injury
  • M. de Ligt back injury
  • T. Heaton injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Fulham lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 B. Leno
  2. 33 A. Robinson
  3. 3 C. Bassey
  4. 22 D. Affengruber
  5. 21 T. Castagne
  6. 19 S. Charles
  7. 16 S. Berge
  8. 17 A. Iwobi
  9. 24 Joshua King
  10. 14 Oscar Bobb
  11. 7 Gonzalo García

Bench: J. Andersen, César Palacios, Rodrigo Muniz, Kevin, H. Larsson, Manuel Ángel, B. Lecomte, R. Sessegnon, E. Smith Rowe

Manchester United lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 S. Lammens
  2. 23 L. Shaw
  3. 6 Lisandro Martínez
  4. 5 H. Maguire
  5. 2 Diogo Dalot
  6. 37 K. Mainoo
  7. 18 Y. Tielemans
  8. 9 M. Rashford
  9. 8 Bruno Fernandes
  10. 19 B. Mbeumo
  11. 10 Matheus Cunha

Bench: N. Mazraoui, M. Mount, J. Zirkzee, K. Darlow, P. Dorgu, L. Yoro, Andrey Santos, C. Baleba, S. Lacey

Fulham vs Manchester United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Fulham 1 · draws 2 · Manchester United 7.

FulhamDrawsManchester United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-01Manchester United3-2FulhamPremier League
2025-08-24Fulham1-1Manchester UnitedPremier League
2025-03-02Manchester United1-1FulhamEngland FA Cup
2025-01-26Fulham0-1Manchester UnitedPremier League
2024-08-16Manchester United1-0FulhamPremier League
2024-02-24Manchester United1-2FulhamPremier League
2023-11-04Fulham0-1Manchester UnitedPremier League
2023-05-28Manchester United2-1FulhamPremier League
2023-03-19Manchester United3-1FulhamFA Cup
2022-11-13Fulham1-2Manchester UnitedPremier League

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match