Manchester City VS Coventry Football Prediction 05/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Manchester City vs Coventry

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Manchester City 10, Coventry 2). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Manchester CityCoventry

2.39 xG per 90 0.87

2.39 npxG per 90 0.87

10.7 PPDA 18.0

14.4 Deep completions per 90 3.0

1.98 xPTS per 90 1.23

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Manchester City vs Coventry: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Manchester City	Draw	Coventry
Model	49%	25%	26%
Market	84%	11%	6%
Published	75%	14%	11%
Edge	-35%	+14%	+21%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.41.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Manchester City vs Coventry odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Manchester City, 23 snapshots since 2026-08-23.

Opened 1.21Now 1.15 -0.06

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Manchester City	1.21	1.15	-0.06
Draw	7.40	9.07	+1.67
Coventry	11.00	17.14	+6.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Manchester City and Coventry expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.85Manchester City

1.41Coventry

Total expected goals: 3.26
Attack rating (Manchester City / Coventry): 1.43 / 1.36
Defence rating (Manchester City / Coventry): 0.84 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Manchester City vs Coventry score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 3.5% 3.5% 1.6% 0.8% 1 5.4% 11.0% 6.7% 3.2% 1.5% 2 6.6% 9.3% 6.6% 3.1% 1.5% 3 4.3% 6.0% 4.3% 2.0% 1.0% 4+ 3.3% 4.6% 3.2% 1.5% 0.7%

Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Coventry goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Manchester City vs Coventry goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 65%

Over 3.5 43%

Both teams to score: 66%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Manchester City vs Coventry

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Manchester City	75%	1.33
	Draw	14%	7.05
	Coventry	11%	9.26
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	65%	1.53
	Under 2.5	35%	2.87
Both teams to score	Yes	66%	1.51
	No	34%	2.96
Double chance	1X (Manchester City or draw)	89%	1.12
	12 (either side)	86%	1.17
	X2 (draw or Coventry)	25%	4.00
Handicap -1	Manchester City win by 2+	29%	3.49
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—