Liverpool vs Manchester City preview
Liverpool has a 36% probability of winning, while Manchester City stands at 38%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a 9% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 71% chance, and there is a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match. Liverpool has an expected goals figure of 1.58, compared to Manchester City's 1.95.
Recent form shows Liverpool with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while Manchester City has won all 6 of their recent games. In their last 7 encounters, Liverpool has 2 wins, 2 draws, and Manchester City has 3 wins. The confidence grade is A. The lack of a clear trend in head-to-head results introduces uncertainty.
Why this pick: Liverpool vs Manchester City
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Liverpool 10, Manchester City 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: model vs market
| Source | Liverpool | Draw | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Market | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Published | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.58.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Manchester City below the model: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Liverpool vs Manchester City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Manchester City, 52 snapshots since 2026-09-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 3.00 | 2.76 | -0.24 |
| Draw | 3.66 | 3.67 | +0.01 |
| Manchester City | 2.15 | 2.38 | +0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Liverpool and Manchester City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (Liverpool / Manchester City)
- 1.20 / 1.56
- Defence rating (Liverpool / Manchester City)
- 1.01 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Liverpool vs Manchester City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Liverpool goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Liverpool vs Manchester City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Liverpool vs Manchester City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 34% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Manchester City | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Liverpool or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Manchester City) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester City win by 2+ | 25% | 3.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Liverpool and Manchester City recent form
Liverpool
4W 2D 0L
Manchester City
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Liverpool at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Manchester City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Liverpool at home only, Manchester City away only.
Injuries & availability
Liverpool
-
A. Isak
thigh injury
-
C. Bradley
knee injury
-
C. Gakpo
ankle injury
-
F. Chiesa
back injury
-
G. Leoni
knee injury
-
H. Ekitike
achilles tendon injury
- J. Jacquet muscle injury
Manchester City
-
N. O'Reilly
injury
-
P. Foden
suspended
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Liverpool vs Manchester City head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Liverpool 2 · draws 2 · Manchester City 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Manchester City | 4-0 | Liverpool | England FA Cup |
| 2026-02-08 | Liverpool | 1-2 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2025-11-09 | Manchester City | 3-0 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2025-02-23 | Manchester City | 0-2 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2024-12-01 | Liverpool | 2-0 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2024-03-10 | Liverpool | 1-1 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2023-11-25 | Manchester City | 1-1 | Liverpool | Premier League |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth 2026-10-10
- Ipswich v Fulham — match page 2026-10-10
- Aston Villa vs Brentford — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Sunderland vs Brighton 2026-10-10
- Manchester United v Tottenham — match page 2026-10-10
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Hull City vs Everton 2026-10-11
- Coventry vs Newcastle United — team news & stats 2026-10-12