Sunderland VS Brighton Football Prediction 10/10/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Sunderland vs Brighton preview

Sunderland has a 34% chance of winning, while Brighton stands at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 73% likelihood, and there is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals. Sunderland's expected goals sit at 1.84, slightly higher than Brighton's 1.82.

Sunderland's recent form shows 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, while Brighton has 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. In their last 3 encounters, Sunderland has not won, with 2 losses and 1 draw against Brighton. The confidence grade is A, but the recent head-to-head record raises questions about Sunderland's ability to secure a win.

Why this pick: Sunderland vs Brighton

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sunderland 10, Brighton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SunderlandBrighton

1.87 xG per 90 2.21

1.68 npxG per 90 2.13

10.6 PPDA 6.0

8.1 Deep completions per 90 8.4

1.67 xPTS per 90 1.68

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Sunderland vs Brighton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Sunderland	Draw	Brighton
Model	40%	24%	36%
Market	31%	27%	41%
Published	34%	26%	40%
Edge	+9%	-3%	-6%

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded 2026-10-09 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Sunderland vs Brighton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Brighton, 54 snapshots since 2026-09-13.

Opened 2.30Now 2.30 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Sunderland	3.00	3.02	+0.02
Draw	3.40	3.49	+0.09
Brighton	2.30	2.30	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sunderland and Brighton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84Sunderland

1.82Brighton

Total expected goals: 3.66
Attack rating (Sunderland / Brighton): 1.18 / 1.49
Defence rating (Sunderland / Brighton): 0.99 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sunderland vs Brighton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 3.0% 3.9% 2.4% 1.6% 1 3.3% 9.5% 7.5% 4.6% 3.1% 2 4.4% 8.0% 7.3% 4.4% 3.0% 3 2.8% 5.1% 4.7% 2.8% 1.9% 4+ 2.1% 3.9% 3.5% 2.1% 1.5%

Rows: Sunderland goals. Columns: Brighton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sunderland vs Brighton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 72%

Over 3.5 52%

Both teams to score: 73%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sunderland vs Brighton

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Sunderland	34%	2.97
	Draw	26%	3.79
	Brighton	40%	2.50
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72%	1.38
	Under 2.5	28%	3.61
Both teams to score	Yes	73%	1.37
	No	27%	3.68
Double chance	1X (Sunderland or draw)	60%	1.67
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Brighton)	66%	1.51
Handicap -1	Brighton win by 2+	19%	5.17
	Push (exactly one goal)	16%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Sunderland and Brighton recent form

Sunderland 3W 1D 2L

Brighton 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sunderland at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-1
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 0.50
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 2

They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Brighton away

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-1
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 4.00
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 2

They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sunderland at home only, Brighton away only.