Ipswich VS Liverpool Football Prediction 04/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Ipswich vs Liverpool

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Ipswich 10, Liverpool 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

IpswichLiverpool

1.03 xG per 90 1.64

1.03 npxG per 90 1.57

17.3 PPDA 10.3

3.3 Deep completions per 90 8.0

0.83 xPTS per 90 1.16

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Ipswich vs Liverpool: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ipswich	Draw	Liverpool
Model	64%	19%	17%
Market	17%	20%	63%
Published	29%	20%	51%
Edge	+47%	-2%	-46%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ipswich vs Liverpool odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Liverpool, 22 snapshots since 2026-08-23.

Opened 1.69Now 1.52 -0.17

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Ipswich	5.33	5.60	+0.27
Draw	4.21	4.75	+0.54
Liverpool	1.69	1.52	-0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ipswich and Liverpool expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.62Ipswich

1.44Liverpool

Total expected goals: 4.07
Attack rating (Ipswich / Liverpool): 1.29 / 1.10
Defence rating (Ipswich / Liverpool): 1.07 / 1.32

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ipswich vs Liverpool score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.4% 1.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 1 3.2% 6.9% 4.3% 2.1% 1.0% 2 5.7% 8.2% 5.9% 2.9% 1.4% 3 5.2% 7.6% 5.5% 2.6% 1.3% 4+ 7.0% 10.2% 7.3% 3.5% 1.8%

Rows: Ipswich goals. Columns: Liverpool goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ipswich vs Liverpool goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 93%

Over 2.5 79%

Over 3.5 60%

Both teams to score: 72%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ipswich vs Liverpool

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ipswich	29%	3.47
	Draw	20%	5.07
	Liverpool	51%	1.94
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	79%	1.27
	Under 2.5	21%	4.75
Both teams to score	Yes	72%	1.38
	No	28%	3.63
Double chance	1X (Ipswich or draw)	49%	2.06
	12 (either side)	80%	1.25
	X2 (draw or Liverpool)	71%	1.41
Handicap -1	Liverpool win by 2+	8%	13.09
	Push (exactly one goal)	10%	—