Why this pick: Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Fulham 10, Crystal Palace 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace: model vs market
| Source | Fulham | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 24% | 26% |
| Market | 43% | 29% | 29% |
| Published | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Edge | +7% | -4% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.44.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Fulham below the model: +6.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fulham, 23 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 2.05 | 2.25 | +0.20 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.37 | +0.17 |
| Crystal Palace | 3.00 | 3.35 | +0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fulham and Crystal Palace expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.35
- Attack rating (Fulham / Crystal Palace)
- 1.06 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Fulham / Crystal Palace)
- 1.04 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fulham goals. Columns: Crystal Palace goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fulham vs Crystal Palace
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fulham | 44% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Crystal Palace | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.48 |
| No | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fulham or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Crystal Palace) | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fulham win by 2+ | 29% | 3.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Fulham and Crystal Palace recent form
Fulham
2W 1D 3L
Crystal Palace
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fulham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Crystal Palace away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Fulham at home only, Crystal Palace away only.
Injuries & availability
Fulham absences
-
H. Larsson
muscle injury
-
L. De Fougerolles
injury
-
Manuel Angel
coach's decision
-
T. Cairney
knee injury
Crystal Palace absences
-
B. Chilwell
hamstring injury
-
C. Riad
knee injury
-
H. Ahanor
muscle injury
-
I. Sarr
groin injury
-
J. Mateta
hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Fulham 2 · draws 4 · Crystal Palace 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Fulham | 1-2 | Crystal Palace | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-01-01 | Crystal Palace | 1-1 | Fulham | Premier League |
| 2025-12-07 | Fulham | 1-2 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2025-03-29 | Fulham | 0-3 | Crystal Palace | England FA Cup |
| 2025-02-22 | Fulham | 0-2 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2024-11-09 | Crystal Palace | 0-2 | Fulham | Premier League |
| 2024-04-27 | Fulham | 1-1 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2023-09-23 | Crystal Palace | 0-0 | Fulham | Premier League |
| 2023-05-20 | Fulham | 2-2 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2022-12-26 | Crystal Palace | 0-3 | Fulham | Premier League |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Ipswich vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-09-04
- Newcastle United vs Bournemouth 2026-09-05
- Manchester City vs Coventry — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Brighton vs Leeds 2026-09-05
- Brentford v Sunderland — match page 2026-09-05
- Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Hull City vs Aston Villa 2026-09-05
- Everton v Manchester United — match page 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Fulham, previous: Sunderland v Fulham analysis
- Fulham, next: Liverpool vs Fulham prediction
- Crystal Palace, next: Crystal Palace v Ipswich analysis