Why this pick: Brighton vs Leeds
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brighton 10, Leeds 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Brighton vs Leeds: model vs market
| Source | Brighton | Draw | Leeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | +7% | -2% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.20.
- The market prices Brighton below the model: +7.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Brighton vs Leeds odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brighton, 23 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 1.74 | 2.05 | +0.31 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.60 | -0.10 |
| Leeds | 4.80 | 3.64 | -1.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brighton and Leeds expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Brighton / Leeds)
- 1.36 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Brighton / Leeds)
- 0.91 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brighton vs Leeds score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brighton goals. Columns: Leeds goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brighton vs Leeds goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brighton vs Leeds
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brighton | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Leeds | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brighton or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Leeds) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brighton win by 2+ | 33% | 3.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Brighton and Leeds recent form
Brighton
2W 1D 3L
Leeds
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brighton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Leeds away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Brighton at home only, Leeds away only.
Injuries & availability
Brighton absences
-
E. Ferguson
ankle injury
-
F. Azeez
abdominal strain
-
G. Rutter
injury
-
J. Hinshelwood
injury
-
K. Mitoma
hamstring injury
-
M. Svoboda
injury
-
M. Wieffer
knee injury
-
S. Tzimas
knee injury
-
Y. Minteh
injury
Leeds absences
-
I. Gruev
knee injury
-
J. Rodon
muscle injury
-
M. Joseph
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Brighton vs Leeds head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Brighton 5 · draws 3 · Leeds 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Leeds | 1-0 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2025-11-01 | Brighton | 3-0 | Leeds | Premier League |
| 2023-03-11 | Leeds | 2-2 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2022-08-27 | Brighton | 1-0 | Leeds | Premier League |
| 2022-05-15 | Leeds | 1-1 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2021-11-27 | Brighton | 0-0 | Leeds | Premier League |
| 2021-05-01 | Brighton | 2-0 | Leeds | Premier League |
| 2021-01-16 | Leeds | 0-1 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2017-03-18 | Leeds | 2-0 | Brighton | Championship |
| 2016-12-09 | Brighton | 2-0 | Leeds | Championship |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Ipswich vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-09-04
- Newcastle United vs Bournemouth 2026-09-05
- Fulham v Crystal Palace — match page 2026-09-05
- Manchester City vs Coventry — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Brentford v Sunderland — match page 2026-09-05
- Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Hull City vs Aston Villa 2026-09-05
- Everton v Manchester United — match page 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Brighton, previous: Chelsea vs Brighton prediction
- Brighton, next: Coventry v Brighton analysis
- Leeds, previous: Leeds – Brentford, 2026-08-30
- Leeds, next: Leeds vs Newcastle United prediction