Why this pick: Newcastle United vs Bournemouth
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Newcastle United 10, Bournemouth 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Newcastle United vs Bournemouth: model vs market
| Source | Newcastle United | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 22% | 37% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 29% |
| Published | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Edge | -6% | -3% | +9% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Newcastle United vs Bournemouth odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Newcastle United, 23 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 2.46 | 2.10 | -0.36 |
| Draw | 3.81 | 3.76 | -0.05 |
| Bournemouth | 2.89 | 3.35 | +0.46 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Newcastle United and Bournemouth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.02
- Attack rating (Newcastle United / Bournemouth)
- 1.11 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Newcastle United / Bournemouth)
- 1.39 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Newcastle United vs Bournemouth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Newcastle United goals. Columns: Bournemouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Newcastle United vs Bournemouth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Newcastle United vs Bournemouth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newcastle United | 44% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Bournemouth | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.30 |
| No | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Newcastle United or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Bournemouth) | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Newcastle United win by 2+ | 23% | 4.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Newcastle United and Bournemouth recent form
Newcastle United
3W 2D 1L
Bournemouth
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Newcastle United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Bournemouth away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Newcastle United at home only, Bournemouth away only.
Injuries & availability
Newcastle United absences
-
D. Burn
ankle injury
-
Joelinton
injury
-
V. Livramento
hamstring injury
-
W. Osula
injury
Bournemouth absences
-
A. Adli
injury
-
E. J. Kroupi
foot injury
-
J. Araujo
thigh injury
-
V. Milosavljevic
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Newcastle United vs Bournemouth head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Newcastle United 1 · draws 6 · Bournemouth 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Newcastle United | 1-2 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2026-01-10 | Newcastle United | 2-2 | Bournemouth | England FA Cup |
| 2025-09-21 | Bournemouth | 0-0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2025-01-18 | Newcastle United | 1-4 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2024-08-25 | Bournemouth | 1-1 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2024-02-17 | Newcastle United | 2-2 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
| 2023-11-11 | Bournemouth | 2-0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2023-02-11 | Bournemouth | 1-1 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2022-12-20 | Newcastle United | 1-0 | Bournemouth | League Cup |
| 2022-09-17 | Newcastle United | 1-1 | Bournemouth | Premier League |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Ipswich vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-09-04
- Fulham v Crystal Palace — match page 2026-09-05
- Manchester City vs Coventry — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Brighton vs Leeds 2026-09-05
- Brentford v Sunderland — match page 2026-09-05
- Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Hull City vs Aston Villa 2026-09-05
- Everton v Manchester United — match page 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Newcastle United, next: Leeds vs Newcastle United prediction
- Bournemouth, next: Bournemouth vs Brentford: odds and pick