Manchester United vs Tottenham preview
Manchester United has a 57% probability of winning against Tottenham, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1 at 9%. The expected goals for Manchester United stand at 2.46, while Tottenham's expected goals are 1.43. This suggests a potential advantage for the home side, but it does not prove a guaranteed outcome.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Manchester United's record being D-L-L-W-D-W and Tottenham's L-L-D-D-L-W. The head-to-head record over the last 6 matches shows Manchester United with 1 win, 2 draws, and Tottenham with 3 wins. The confidence grade is A, yet the recent form of both teams raises questions about the reliability of these predictions.
Why this pick: Manchester United vs Tottenham
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Manchester United 10, Tottenham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Manchester United vs Tottenham: model vs market
| Source | Manchester United | Draw | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 20% | 19% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Edge | +6% | -3% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.43.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Manchester United below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Manchester United vs Tottenham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Manchester United, 54 snapshots since 2026-09-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 1.67 | 1.71 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.20 | -0.10 |
| Tottenham | 4.75 | 4.45 | -0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Manchester United and Tottenham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.89
- Attack rating (Manchester United / Tottenham)
- 1.45 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Manchester United / Tottenham)
- 1.06 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Manchester United vs Tottenham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Manchester United goals. Columns: Tottenham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Manchester United vs Tottenham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Manchester United vs Tottenham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester United | 57% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Tottenham | 21% | 4.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Manchester United or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Tottenham) | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester United win by 2+ | 42% | 2.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Manchester United and Tottenham recent form
Manchester United
2W 2D 2L
Tottenham
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Manchester United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Tottenham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Manchester United at home only, Tottenham away only.
Injuries & availability
Manchester United
-
A. Diallo
injury
- B. Sesko leg injury
- K. Darlow injury
- K. Mainoo injury
- M. Rashford health problems
-
M. Ugarte
knee injury
-
M. de Ligt
back injury
- N. Mazraoui injury
- P. Dorgu hamstring injury
-
T. Heaton
abdominal strain
Tottenham
-
D. Kulusevski
knee injury
-
M. Mudryk
ankle injury
- M. van de Ven wrist injury
- P. Porro muscle injury
-
W. Odobert
knee injury
-
X. Simons
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Manchester United vs Tottenham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Manchester United 2 · draws 3 · Tottenham 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Manchester United | 2-0 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2025-11-08 | Tottenham | 2-2 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2025-05-21 | Tottenham | 1-0 | Manchester United | UEFA Europa League |
| 2025-02-16 | Tottenham | 1-0 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2024-12-19 | Tottenham | 4-3 | Manchester United | League Cup |
| 2024-09-29 | Manchester United | 0-3 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2024-01-14 | Manchester United | 2-2 | Tottenham | Premier League |
| 2023-08-19 | Tottenham | 2-0 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2023-04-27 | Tottenham | 2-2 | Manchester United | Premier League |
| 2022-10-19 | Manchester United | 2-0 | Tottenham | Premier League |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Arsenal vs Leeds — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth 2026-10-10
- Ipswich v Fulham — match page 2026-10-10
- Aston Villa vs Brentford — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Sunderland vs Brighton 2026-10-10
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Hull City vs Everton 2026-10-11
- Liverpool v Manchester City — match page 2026-10-11