Ipswich vs Fulham preview
Ipswich has a 37% probability of winning, while Fulham also sits at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%. Ipswich's expected goals stand at 2.09 compared to Fulham's 1.92.
Both teams to score has a probability of 77%, and there is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals. Ipswich's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 losses, while Fulham has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. The head-to-head record favours Fulham with 6 wins out of the last 10 encounters. The confidence grade is B, indicating a reasonable level of uncertainty.
Why this pick: Ipswich vs Fulham
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Ipswich 10, Fulham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Ipswich vs Fulham: model vs market
| Source | Ipswich | Draw | Fulham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 22% | 34% |
| Market | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Published | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Edge | +10% | -5% | -5% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ipswich vs Fulham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fulham, 54 snapshots since 2026-09-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich | 2.90 | 2.76 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.52 | +0.02 |
| Fulham | 2.38 | 2.47 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ipswich and Fulham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.01
- Attack rating (Ipswich / Fulham)
- 1.14 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Ipswich / Fulham)
- 1.26 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ipswich vs Fulham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ipswich goals. Columns: Fulham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ipswich vs Fulham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ipswich vs Fulham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ipswich | 37% | 2.71 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.87 | |
| Fulham | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.30 |
| No | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ipswich or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Fulham) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fulham win by 2+ | 18% | 5.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Ipswich and Fulham recent form
Ipswich
2W 0D 4L
Fulham
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ipswich at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Fulham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ipswich at home only, Fulham away only.
Injuries & availability
Ipswich
-
I. Fatawu
suspended
Fulham
-
K. Tete
concussion
-
T. Cairney
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Ipswich vs Fulham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Ipswich 1 · draws 3 · Fulham 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | Fulham | 2-2 | Ipswich | Premier League |
| 2024-08-31 | Ipswich | 1-1 | Fulham | Premier League |
| 2023-11-01 | Ipswich | 1-3 | Fulham | League Cup |
| 2020-09-16 | Ipswich | 0-1 | Fulham | League Cup |
| 2018-01-02 | Fulham | 4-1 | Ipswich | Championship |
| 2017-08-26 | Ipswich | 0-2 | Fulham | Championship |
| 2017-04-08 | Fulham | 3-1 | Ipswich | Championship |
| 2016-12-26 | Ipswich | 0-2 | Fulham | Championship |
| 2016-04-19 | Ipswich | 1-1 | Fulham | Championship |
| 2015-12-15 | Fulham | 1-2 | Ipswich | Championship |
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