Updated

Premier League · Matchday 3

Hull City vs Aston Villa

· MKM Stadium, Hull· Referee Michael Oliver, England

Full time0 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Aston Villa to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Hull CityDrawAston Villa

Why this pick: Hull City vs Aston Villa

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hull City 2, Aston Villa 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Hull CityAston Villa
0.98 xG per 90 1.65
0.98 npxG per 90 1.65
18.6 PPDA 15.0
2.0 Deep completions per 90 5.3
0.90 xPTS per 90 1.48

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Hull City vs Aston Villa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHull CityDrawAston Villa
Model47%30%23%
Market23%26%51%
Published29%27%44%
Edge+24%+4%-28%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Hull City vs Aston Villa odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Aston Villa, 24 snapshots since 2026-08-23.

Opened 1.75Now 1.89 +0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Hull City4.924.12-0.79
Draw4.173.67-0.50
Aston Villa1.751.89+0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Hull City and Aston Villa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.40Hull City
0.96Aston Villa
Total expected goals
2.36
Attack rating (Hull City / Aston Villa)
0.92 / 1.24
Defence rating (Hull City / Aston Villa)
0.63 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Hull City vs Aston Villa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.6% 6.6% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 1 11.1% 14.3% 6.0% 1.9% 0.6% 2 9.5% 9.1% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 3 4.7% 4.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 2.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Hull City goals. Columns: Aston Villa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Hull City vs Aston Villa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Hull City vs Aston Villa

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Hull City29%3.42
Draw27%3.69
Aston Villa44%2.29
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.28
Under 2.556%1.78
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.02
No51%1.98
Double chance1X (Hull City or draw)56%1.78
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Aston Villa)71%1.41
Handicap -1Aston Villa win by 2+9%11.59
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Hull City and Aston Villa recent form

Hull City 4W 2D 0L
Aston Villa 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Hull City at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Aston Villa away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Hull City at home only, Aston Villa away only.

Injuries & availability

Hull City absences

  • C. Hughes groin injury
  • D. Gyabi groin injury
  • E. Matazo knee injury
  • I. Ansah back injury
  • J. Butland arm injury
  • J. Gelhardt ankle injury
  • M. Crooks muscle injury
  • O. Zambrano hamstring injury

Aston Villa absences

  • A. Onana knee injury
  • B. Madjo ankle injury
  • J. Manzambi knee injury
  • Joao Gomes suspended

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Hull City vs Aston Villa head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Hull City 1 · draws 4 · Aston Villa 3.

Hull CityDrawsAston Villa
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2019-01-19Aston Villa2-2Hull CityChampionship
2018-08-06Hull City1-3Aston VillaChampionship
2018-03-31Hull City0-0Aston VillaChampionship
2017-08-05Aston Villa1-1Hull CityChampionship
2015-02-10Hull City2-0Aston VillaPremier League
2014-08-31Aston Villa2-1Hull CityPremier League
2014-05-03Aston Villa3-1Hull CityPremier League
2013-10-05Hull City0-0Aston VillaPremier League

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Before and after this match