Leeds VS Brentford Football Prediction 30/08/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Leeds vs Brentford

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Leeds 10, Brentford 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LeedsBrentford

1.64 xG per 90 1.90

1.41 npxG per 90 1.67

11.3 PPDA 10.8

5.2 Deep completions per 90 6.5

1.62 xPTS per 90 1.54

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Leeds vs Brentford: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Leeds	Draw	Brentford
Model	46%	24%	30%
Market	37%	28%	35%
Published	40%	27%	33%
Edge	+9%	-4%	-5%

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
The market prices Leeds below the model: +9.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Leeds vs Brentford odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Leeds, 17 snapshots since 2026-08-21.

Opened 2.90Now 2.55 -0.35

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Leeds	2.90	2.55	-0.35
Draw	3.65	3.40	-0.25
Brentford	2.38	2.75	+0.38

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Leeds and Brentford expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.97Leeds

1.68Brentford

Total expected goals: 3.64
Attack rating (Leeds / Brentford): 1.10 / 1.58
Defence rating (Leeds / Brentford): 0.87 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Leeds vs Brentford score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 2.7% 3.3% 1.9% 1.1% 1 3.7% 9.4% 6.9% 3.9% 2.4% 2 5.0% 8.5% 7.1% 4.0% 2.4% 3 3.5% 5.8% 4.9% 2.7% 1.7% 4+ 2.9% 4.8% 4.1% 2.3% 1.4%

Rows: Leeds goals. Columns: Brentford goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Leeds vs Brentford goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 90%

Over 2.5 72%

Over 3.5 51%

Both teams to score: 72%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Leeds vs Brentford

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Leeds	40%	2.52
	Draw	27%	3.72
	Brentford	33%	2.99
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	72%	1.39
	Under 2.5	28%	3.59
Both teams to score	Yes	72%	1.39
	No	28%	3.59
Double chance	1X (Leeds or draw)	67%	1.50
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Brentford)	60%	1.66
Handicap -1	Leeds win by 2+	27%	3.68
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—