Why this pick: Chelsea vs Brighton
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Chelsea 10, Brighton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Chelsea vs Brighton: model vs market
| Source | Chelsea | Draw | Brighton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 27% | 42% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | -19% | +2% | +17% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Chelsea vs Brighton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chelsea, 17 snapshots since 2026-08-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 2.37 | 1.91 | -0.46 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.75 | +0.15 |
| Brighton | 2.90 | 3.75 | +0.85 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chelsea and Brighton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Chelsea / Brighton)
- 1.06 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Chelsea / Brighton)
- 0.97 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chelsea vs Brighton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chelsea goals. Columns: Brighton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chelsea vs Brighton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chelsea vs Brighton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Brighton | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chelsea or draw) | 71% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Brighton) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chelsea win by 2+ | 12% | 8.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Chelsea and Brighton recent form
Chelsea
3W 1D 2L
Brighton
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Chelsea absences
-
E. Fernandez
coach's decision
-
E. Martinez
finger injury
-
J. Henderson
wrist injury
-
M. Caicedo
injury
-
M. Palestra
injury
Brighton absences
-
E. Ferguson
ankle injury
-
J. Hinshelwood
injury
-
K. Mitoma
hamstring injury
-
S. Tzimas
knee injury
-
Y. Minteh
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Chelsea vs Brighton head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Chelsea 3 · draws 0 · Brighton 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Brighton | 3-0 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2025-09-27 | Chelsea | 1-3 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2025-02-14 | Brighton | 3-0 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2025-02-08 | Brighton | 2-1 | Chelsea | England FA Cup |
| 2024-09-28 | Chelsea | 4-2 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 2024-05-15 | Brighton | 1-2 | Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2023-12-03 | Chelsea | 3-2 | Brighton | Premier League |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Leeds v Brentford — match page 2026-08-30
- Sunderland vs Fulham — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Manchester United vs Ipswich 2026-08-30
Before and after this match
- Chelsea, next: Arsenal v Chelsea analysis
- Brighton, next: Brighton – Leeds, 2026-09-05