Updated

Premier League · Matchday 2

Sunderland vs Fulham

· Stadium of Light, Sunderland· Referee Michael Salisbury, England

Full time1 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Sunderland to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SunderlandDrawFulham

Why this pick: Sunderland vs Fulham

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sunderland 10, Fulham 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SunderlandFulham
1.42 xG per 90 1.44
1.42 npxG per 90 1.29
11.0 PPDA 11.6
8.1 Deep completions per 90 8.8
1.33 xPTS per 90 1.29

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Sunderland vs Fulham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSunderlandDrawFulham
Model49%26%25%
Market39%29%33%
Published41%28%31%
Edge+10%-2%-8%
  • The market prices Sunderland below the model: +10.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sunderland vs Fulham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sunderland, 13 snapshots since 2026-08-22.

Opened 2.85Now 2.45 -0.40
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sunderland2.852.45-0.40
Draw3.353.30-0.05
Fulham2.482.90+0.42

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sunderland and Fulham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Sunderland
1.39Fulham
Total expected goals
2.94
Attack rating (Sunderland / Fulham)
0.97 / 1.11
Defence rating (Sunderland / Fulham)
1.02 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sunderland vs Fulham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.5% 5.1% 4.7% 2.2% 1.0% 1 6.3% 12.7% 7.7% 3.6% 1.7% 2 6.5% 9.0% 6.3% 2.9% 1.4% 3 3.5% 4.9% 3.4% 1.6% 0.7% 4+ 2.1% 2.9% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: Sunderland goals. Columns: Fulham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sunderland vs Fulham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sunderland vs Fulham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sunderland41%2.43
Draw28%3.56
Fulham31%3.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.70
Under 2.541%2.44
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.59
Double chance1X (Sunderland or draw)69%1.44
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Fulham)59%1.70
Handicap -1Sunderland win by 2+22%4.53
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sunderland and Fulham recent form

Sunderland 2W 2D 2L
Fulham 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Sunderland absences

  • D. Methalie yellow cards
  • S. Adingra foot injury

Fulham absences

  • L. De Fougerolles injury
  • T. Cairney knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Sunderland vs Fulham head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Sunderland 0 · draws 0 · Fulham 2.

SunderlandDrawsFulham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-22Sunderland1-3FulhamPremier League
2025-11-22Fulham1-0SunderlandPremier League

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Before and after this match