Why this pick: Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Aston Villa 10, Arsenal 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal: model vs market
| Source | Aston Villa | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| Published | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Edge | +25% | +6% | -31% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 20 snapshots since 2026-08-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 4.33 | 6.30 | +1.97 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 4.37 | +0.65 |
| Arsenal | 1.84 | 1.53 | -0.31 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aston Villa and Arsenal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Aston Villa / Arsenal)
- 1.36 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Aston Villa / Arsenal)
- 0.96 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aston Villa goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aston Villa vs Arsenal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 22% | 4.64 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Arsenal | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aston Villa or draw) | 45% | 2.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Arsenal) | 78% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win by 2+ | 15% | 6.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Aston Villa and Arsenal recent form
Aston Villa
4W 1D 1L
Arsenal
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Aston Villa absences
-
A. Onana
knee injury
-
B. Madjo
ankle injury
-
J. Manzambi
knee injury
-
Joao Gomes
suspended
-
L. Bailey
muscle injury
-
T. Abraham
injury
Arsenal absences
-
Bruno Guimaraes
thigh injury
-
G. Martinelli
transfer negotiations
-
Gabriel Jesus
transfer negotiations
-
J. Timber
ankle injury
-
W. Saliba
back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Aston Villa 3 · draws 1 · Arsenal 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | Arsenal | 4-1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2025-12-06 | Aston Villa | 2-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2025-01-18 | Arsenal | 2-2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2024-08-24 | Aston Villa | 0-2 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2024-04-14 | Arsenal | 0-2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2023-12-09 | Aston Villa | 1-0 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2023-02-18 | Aston Villa | 2-4 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2022-08-31 | Arsenal | 2-1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2022-03-19 | Aston Villa | 0-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2021-10-22 | Arsenal | 3-1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Chelsea vs Brighton 2026-08-30
- Leeds v Brentford — match page 2026-08-30
- Sunderland vs Fulham — team news & stats 2026-08-30
Before and after this match
- Aston Villa, next: Hull City vs Aston Villa prediction
- Arsenal, next: Arsenal v Chelsea analysis