Marseille VS Paris FC Football Prediction 06/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Marseille vs Paris FC

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Marseille 10, Paris FC 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

MarseilleParis FC

2.25 xG per 90 2.12

2.10 npxG per 90 1.96

10.1 PPDA 15.4

9.0 Deep completions per 90 6.5

1.82 xPTS per 90 1.99

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Marseille vs Paris FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Marseille	Draw	Paris FC
Model	43%	23%	34%
Market	51%	25%	24%
Published	49%	25%	26%
Edge	-8%	-3%	+11%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Marseille vs Paris FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Marseille, 16 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.56Now 1.88 +0.32

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Marseille	1.56	1.88	+0.32
Draw	4.10	3.82	-0.28
Paris FC	4.70	4.07	-0.63

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Marseille and Paris FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.94Marseille

1.64Paris FC

Total expected goals: 3.58
Attack rating (Marseille / Paris FC): 1.35 / 1.29
Defence rating (Marseille / Paris FC): 1.01 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Marseille vs Paris FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 4.8% 4.1% 2.3% 1.3% 1 5.4% 9.5% 7.6% 4.2% 2.5% 2 5.2% 8.5% 7.0% 3.8% 2.3% 3 3.2% 5.2% 4.3% 2.4% 1.4% 4+ 2.2% 3.7% 3.0% 1.6% 1.0%

Rows: Marseille goals. Columns: Paris FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Marseille vs Paris FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 68%

Over 3.5 46%

Both teams to score: 68%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Marseille vs Paris FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Marseille	49%	2.04
	Draw	25%	4.07
	Paris FC	26%	3.79
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.48
	Under 2.5	32%	3.10
Both teams to score	Yes	68%	1.47
	No	32%	3.14
Double chance	1X (Marseille or draw)	74%	1.36
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Paris FC)	51%	1.96
Handicap -1	Marseille win by 2+	23%	4.31
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—