Why this pick: Angers vs Rennes
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Angers 10, Rennes 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Angers vs Rennes: model vs market
| Source | Angers | Draw | Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 22% | 45% |
| Market | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| Published | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| Edge | +10% | -3% | -7% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Angers vs Rennes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rennes, 15 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angers | 4.20 | 4.00 | -0.21 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.93 | +0.08 |
| Rennes | 1.90 | 1.86 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Angers and Rennes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.90
- Attack rating (Angers / Rennes)
- 0.88 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Angers / Rennes)
- 1.25 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Angers vs Rennes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Angers goals. Columns: Rennes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Angers vs Rennes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Angers vs Rennes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Angers | 26% | 3.78 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Rennes | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Angers or draw) | 50% | 1.99 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Rennes) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rennes win by 2+ | 27% | 3.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Angers and Rennes recent form
Angers
1W 2D 3L
Rennes
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Angers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Angers at home only, Rennes away only.
Injuries & availability
Angers absences
-
H. Belkebla
thigh injury
-
L. Mouton
knee injury
Rennes absences
-
A. Ait Boudlal
inactive
-
D. Cisse
inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Angers vs Rennes head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Angers 1 · draws 1 · Rennes 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Rennes | 2-1 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Angers | 1-1 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-30 | Angers | 0-3 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-12-15 | Rennes | 2-0 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-07-27 | Rennes | 2-1 | Angers | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-04-30 | Rennes | 4-2 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-10-23 | Angers | 1-2 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-03-06 | Rennes | 2-0 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-08-29 | Angers | 2-0 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Toulouse v Lille — match page 2026-09-03
- Lyon vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-09-04
- Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco 2026-09-04
- Lens v Lorient — match page 2026-09-05
- Nice vs Le Mans — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Le Havre vs Brest 2026-09-05
- Estac Troyes v Strasbourg — match page 2026-09-06
- Marseille vs Paris FC 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Angers, next: Le Havre v Angers analysis
- Rennes, previous: Rennes vs Le Mans: odds and pick
- Rennes, next: Rennes v Marseille analysis