Paris FC VS Lyon Football Prediction 12/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Paris FC vs Lyon

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Paris FC 10, Lyon 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Paris FCLyon

2.22 xG per 90 1.70

1.98 npxG per 90 1.63

15.9 PPDA 18.8

6.5 Deep completions per 90 9.5

2.05 xPTS per 90 1.55

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Paris FC vs Lyon: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Paris FC	Draw	Lyon
Model	56%	21%	23%
Market	37%	26%	37%
Published	42%	25%	33%
Edge	+19%	-5%	-14%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.33.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
The market prices Paris FC below the model: +18.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Paris FC vs Lyon odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Paris FC, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 2.65Now 2.55 -0.10

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Paris FC	2.65	2.55	-0.10
Draw	3.45	3.70	+0.25
Lyon	2.30	2.60	+0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Paris FC and Lyon expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.26Paris FC

1.33Lyon

Total expected goals: 3.59
Attack rating (Paris FC / Lyon): 1.40 / 1.15
Defence rating (Paris FC / Lyon): 0.91 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Paris FC vs Lyon score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 3.9% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5% 1 6.4% 9.0% 5.8% 2.6% 1.1% 2 7.1% 9.5% 6.3% 2.8% 1.2% 3 5.1% 6.8% 4.5% 2.0% 0.9% 4+ 4.5% 6.0% 4.0% 1.8% 0.8%

Rows: Paris FC goals. Columns: Lyon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Paris FC vs Lyon goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 67%

Over 3.5 46%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Paris FC vs Lyon

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Paris FC	42%	2.37
	Draw	25%	4.06
	Lyon	33%	3.01
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	68%	1.48
	Under 2.5	32%	3.09
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.53
	No	35%	2.87
Double chance	1X (Paris FC or draw)	67%	1.50
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Lyon)	58%	1.73
Handicap -1	Paris FC win by 2+	34%	2.91
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—