Estac Troyes VS Strasbourg Football Prediction 06/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Estac Troyes 2, Strasbourg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Estac TroyesStrasbourg

1.01 xG per 90 1.66

0.63 npxG per 90 1.58

19.0 PPDA 13.2

5.5 Deep completions per 90 6.4

1.15 xPTS per 90 1.21

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Estac Troyes	Draw	Strasbourg
Model	71%	18%	11%
Market	32%	27%	40%
Published	42%	25%	33%
Edge	+39%	-9%	-29%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.39 vs 0.78.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
The market prices Estac Troyes below the model: +38.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Estac Troyes, 15 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 2.90Now 2.96 +0.06

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Estac Troyes	2.90	2.96	+0.06
Draw	3.35	3.51	+0.16
Strasbourg	2.20	2.39	+0.19

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Estac Troyes and Strasbourg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.39Estac Troyes

0.78Strasbourg

Total expected goals: 3.17
Attack rating (Estac Troyes / Strasbourg): 1.23 / 0.93
Defence rating (Estac Troyes / Strasbourg): 0.67 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 3.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1 10.5% 8.6% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 2 12.2% 9.5% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 3 9.2% 7.2% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 8.9% 7.0% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Estac Troyes goals. Columns: Strasbourg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 59%

Over 3.5 36%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Estac Troyes	42%	2.38
	Draw	25%	4.00
	Strasbourg	33%	3.04
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	59%	1.70
	Under 2.5	41%	2.44
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.05
	No	51%	1.95
Double chance	1X (Estac Troyes or draw)	67%	1.49
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Strasbourg)	58%	1.73
Handicap -1	Estac Troyes win by 2+	48%	2.10
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Estac Troyes and Strasbourg recent form

Estac Troyes 4W 1D 1L

Strasbourg 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Estac Troyes at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-0
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 1

Strasbourg away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 4.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Estac Troyes at home only, Strasbourg away only.

Injuries & availability

Estac Troyes absences

I. Boura injury
P. Gozzi muscle injury
Y. Titi injury

Strasbourg absences

I. Doukoure injury
J. Panichelli knee injury
M. Godo muscle injury
M. Oyedele injury
S. El Mourabet suspended

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Estac Troyes 3 · draws 3 · Strasbourg 2.

38% 38% 24%

Estac TroyesDrawsStrasbourg

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2023-05-21	Estac Troyes	1-1	Strasbourg	Ligue 1
2023-01-02	Strasbourg	2-3	Estac Troyes	Ligue 1
2022-04-17	Estac Troyes	1-1	Strasbourg	Ligue 1
2021-08-22	Strasbourg	1-1	Estac Troyes	Ligue 1
2018-02-11	Strasbourg	2-1	Estac Troyes	Ligue 1
2017-11-04	Estac Troyes	3-0	Strasbourg	Ligue 1
2017-02-07	Estac Troyes	4-0	Strasbourg	Ligue 2
2016-09-12	Strasbourg	2-0	Estac Troyes	Ligue 2

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Toulouse v Lille — match page 2026-09-03
Lyon vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-09-04
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco 2026-09-04
Lens v Lorient — match page 2026-09-05
Nice vs Le Mans — team news & stats 2026-09-05
Le Havre vs Brest 2026-09-05
Angers vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-09-06
Marseille vs Paris FC 2026-09-06

Before and after this match

Estac Troyes, next: Lille vs Estac Troyes prediction
Strasbourg, next: Strasbourg vs Monaco: odds and pick