Toulouse VS Lille Football Prediction 03/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Toulouse vs Lille

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Toulouse 10, Lille 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

ToulouseLille

1.31 xG per 90 1.56

1.31 npxG per 90 1.33

14.3 PPDA 12.3

5.4 Deep completions per 90 7.8

1.34 xPTS per 90 1.76

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Toulouse vs Lille: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Toulouse	Draw	Lille
Model	32%	27%	41%
Market	24%	28%	48%
Published	26%	28%	46%
Edge	+8%	0%	-7%

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Toulouse vs Lille odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Lille, 10 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 2.05Now 1.95 -0.10

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Toulouse	3.15	3.90	+0.75
Draw	3.35	3.40	+0.05
Lille	2.05	1.95	-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Toulouse and Lille expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23Toulouse

1.35Lille

Total expected goals: 2.58
Attack rating (Toulouse / Lille): 0.97 / 0.92
Defence rating (Toulouse / Lille): 1.18 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Toulouse vs Lille score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.4% 10.6% 7.4% 3.3% 1.5% 1 9.1% 13.0% 8.6% 3.9% 1.8% 2 5.5% 7.4% 5.0% 2.3% 1.0% 3 2.1% 2.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 4+ 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Toulouse goals. Columns: Lille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Toulouse vs Lille goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 72%

Over 2.5 46%

Over 3.5 25%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Toulouse vs Lille

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Toulouse	26%	3.84
	Draw	28%	3.63
	Lille	46%	2.16
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	46%	2.16
	Under 2.5	54%	1.86
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.94
	No	49%	2.06
Double chance	1X (Toulouse or draw)	54%	1.86
	12 (either side)	72%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Lille)	74%	1.35
Handicap -1	Lille win by 2+	19%	5.26
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Toulouse and Lille recent form

Toulouse 2W 3D 1L

Lille 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Toulouse at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

Lille away

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Toulouse at home only, Lille away only.

Injuries & availability

Toulouse absences

A. Donnum personal reasons
A. Francis muscle injury
Y. Gboho transfer negotiations

Lille absences

H. Igamane knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Toulouse vs Lille head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Toulouse 2 · draws 1 · Lille 7.

20% 10% 70%

ToulouseDrawsLille

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-04-12	Toulouse	0-4	Lille	Ligue 1
2025-09-14	Lille	2-1	Toulouse	Ligue 1
2025-04-12	Toulouse	1-2	Lille	Ligue 1
2024-10-05	Lille	2-1	Toulouse	Ligue 1
2024-02-25	Toulouse	3-1	Lille	Ligue 1
2023-11-12	Lille	1-1	Toulouse	Ligue 1
2023-03-18	Toulouse	0-2	Lille	Ligue 1
2022-09-17	Lille	2-1	Toulouse	Ligue 1
2020-02-22	Lille	3-0	Toulouse	Ligue 1
2019-10-19	Toulouse	2-1	Lille	Ligue 1

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Lyon vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-09-04
Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco 2026-09-04
Lens v Lorient — match page 2026-09-05
Nice vs Le Mans — team news & stats 2026-09-05
Le Havre vs Brest 2026-09-05
Estac Troyes v Strasbourg — match page 2026-09-06
Angers vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-09-06
Marseille vs Paris FC 2026-09-06

Before and after this match

Toulouse, next: Lorient vs Toulouse prediction
Lille, next: Lille vs Estac Troyes prediction